Effects of Sea Ice on Arctic Delta Evolution: A Modeling Study of the Colville River Delta, Alaska

Seasonal sea ice impacts Arctic delta morphology by limiting wave and river influences and altering river-to-ocean sediment pathways. However, the long-term effects of sea ice on delta morphology remain poorly known. To address this gap, 1D morphologic and hydrodynamic simulations were set up in Delft3D to study the 1500-year development of Arctic deltas during the most energetic Arctic seasons: spring break-up/freshet, summer open-water, and autumn freeze-up. The model focused on the deltaic clinoform (i.e., the vertical cross-sectional view of a delta) and used a floating barge structure to mimic the effects of sea ice on nearshore waters. From the simulations we find that ice-affected deltas form a compound clinoform morphology, that is, a coupled subaerial and subaqueous delta separated by a subaqueous platform that resembles the shallow platform observed offshore of Arctic deltas. Nearshore sea ice affects river dynamics and promotes sediment bypassing during sea ice break-up, forming an offshore depocenter and building a subaqueous platform. A second depocenter forms closer to shore during the open-water season at the subaerial foreset that aids in outbuilding the subaerial delta and assists in developing the compound clinoform morphology. Simulations of increased wave activity and reduced sea-ice, likely futures under a warming Arctic climate, show that deltas may lose their shallow platform on centennial timescales by (a) sediment infill and/or (b) wave erosion. This study highlights the importance of sea ice on Arctic delta morphology and the potential morphologic transitions these high-latitude deltas may experience as the Arctic continues to warm.