Early-warning signals for critical transitions

M. Scheffer; J. Bascompte; W.A. Brock; V. Brovkin; S.R. Carpenter; V. Dakos; H. den Held; E.H. van Nes; M.G. Rietkerk; G. Sugihara

doi:10.1038/nature08227

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

M. Scheffer, J. Bascompte, W.A. Brock, V. Brovkin, S.R. Carpenter, V. Dakos, H. den Held, E.H. van Nes, M.G. Rietkerk, G. Sugihara

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Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reachedis extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	53-59
Number of pages	7
Journal	Nature
Volume	461
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08227
Publication status	Published - 2009

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title = "Early-warning signals for critical transitions",

abstract = "Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reachedis extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.",

author = "M. Scheffer and J. Bascompte and W.A. Brock and V. Brovkin and S.R. Carpenter and V. Dakos and {den Held}, H. and {van Nes}, E.H. and M.G. Rietkerk and G. Sugihara",

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AU - Scheffer, M.

AU - Bascompte, J.

AU - Brock, W.A.

AU - Brovkin, V.

AU - Carpenter, S.R.

AU - Dakos, V.

AU - den Held, H.

AU - van Nes, E.H.

AU - Rietkerk, M.G.

AU - Sugihara, G.

PY - 2009

Y1 - 2009

N2 - Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reachedis extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.

AB - Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reachedis extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.

U2 - 10.1038/nature08227

DO - 10.1038/nature08227

M3 - Article

SN - 0028-0836

VL - 461

SP - 53

EP - 59

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

IS - 3

ER -

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

Abstract

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