Dynamics of the plague–wildlife–human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds

N.I. Samia; K.L. Kausrud; J.A.P. Heesterbeek; V.S. Ageyev; M. Begon; K.S. Chan; N.C. Stenseth

doi:10.1073/pnas.1015946108

Dynamics of the plague–wildlife–human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds

N.I. Samia, K.L. Kausrud, J.A.P. Heesterbeek, V.S. Ageyev, M. Begon, K.S. Chan, N.C. Stenseth

extern

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a zoonotic reemerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data (1949–1995) from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (climate) conditions, we analyze the full ecoepidemiological (bubonic) plague system. We show that two epidemiological threshold quantities play key roles: one threshold relating to the dynamics in the host reservoir, and the second threshold relating to the spillover of the plague bacteria into the human population.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	14527-14532
Number of pages	6
Journal	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume	108
Issue number	35
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1015946108
Publication status	Published - 2011

Keywords

climate forcing
generalized threshold model
wildlife reservoir of Yersinia pestis
spillover to the human population

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Samia, N. I., Kausrud, K. L., Heesterbeek, J. A. P., Ageyev, V. S., Begon, M., Chan, K. S., & Stenseth, N. C. (2011). Dynamics of the plague–wildlife–human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108(35), 14527-14532. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1015946108

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abstract = "Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a zoonotic reemerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data (1949–1995) from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (climate) conditions, we analyze the full ecoepidemiological (bubonic) plague system. We show that two epidemiological threshold quantities play key roles: one threshold relating to the dynamics in the host reservoir, and the second threshold relating to the spillover of the plague bacteria into the human population.",

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Dynamics of the plague–wildlife–human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds. / Samia, N.I.; Kausrud, K.L.; Heesterbeek, J.A.P. et al.
In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 108, No. 35, 2011, p. 14527-14532.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

TY - JOUR

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AU - Samia, N.I.

AU - Kausrud, K.L.

AU - Heesterbeek, J.A.P.

AU - Ageyev, V.S.

AU - Begon, M.

AU - Chan, K.S.

AU - Stenseth, N.C.

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AB - Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a zoonotic reemerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data (1949–1995) from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (climate) conditions, we analyze the full ecoepidemiological (bubonic) plague system. We show that two epidemiological threshold quantities play key roles: one threshold relating to the dynamics in the host reservoir, and the second threshold relating to the spillover of the plague bacteria into the human population.

KW - climate forcing

KW - generalized threshold model

KW - wildlife reservoir of Yersinia pestis

KW - spillover to the human population

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JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

IS - 35

ER -

Dynamics of the plague–wildlife–human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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