Does telecommuting promote active travel? New evidence from the Netherlands

Telecommuting has been proposed as a strategy to promote sustainable mobility, yet its impact on active travel remains unclear, particularly when considering socio-demographics and telecommuting-related behavioral changes. To address this gap, this study investigates the relationships between telecommuting frequency, telecommuting-related behavioral changes, and the frequency of walking, conventional bike use and e-bike use in the Netherlands. Using data from the 2022 Netherlands Mobility Panel, we estimated a Bayesian Network model. Results show that moderate telecommuting (2–4 days/week) is associated with higher walking frequency, while full-time telecommuting (5+ days) generally is linked to lower likelihoods of frequent conventional bike and e-bike use. Moreover, respondents who reported ‘started to make more trips’ showed higher probabilities of using conventional bikes, whereas those who “started travelling on other days” exhibited distinct patterns of e-bike use, including greater probabilities of occasional use. Additionally, e-bike ownership corresponds to more e-bike use while coinciding with lower possibilities of frequent walking and conventional bike use, indicating a substitution effect. These findings provide empirical insights for policymakers seeking to design telecommuting and mobility policies that encourage active travel.