TY - JOUR
T1 - Distributions of p-values smaller than .05 in Psychology: What is going on?
AU - Hartgerink, Chris H J
AU - Van Aert, Robbie C M
AU - Nuijten, Michèle B.
AU - Wicherts, Jelte M.
AU - Van Assen, Marcel A L M
PY - 2016
Y1 - 2016
N2 - Previous studies provided mixed findings on pecularities in p-value distributions in psychology. This paper examined 258,050 test results across 30,710 articles from eight high impact journals to investigate the existence of a peculiar prevalence of p-values just below .05 (i.e., a bump) in the psychological literature, and a potential increase thereof over time. We indeed found evidence for a bump just below .05 in the distribution of exactly reported p-values in the journals Developmental Psychology, Journal of Applied Psychology, and Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, but the bump did not increase over the years and disappeared when using recalculated p-values. We found clear and direct evidence for the QRP ``incorrect rounding of p-value'' (John, Loewenstein & Prelec, 2012) in all psychology journals. Finally, we also investigated monotonic excess of p-values, an effect of certain QRPs that has been neglected in previous research, and developed two measures to detect this by modeling the distributions of statistically significant p-values. Using simulations and applying the two measures to the retrieved test results, we argue that, although one of the measures suggests the use of QRPs in psychology, it is difficult to draw general conclusions concerning QRPs based on modeling of p-value distributions.
AB - Previous studies provided mixed findings on pecularities in p-value distributions in psychology. This paper examined 258,050 test results across 30,710 articles from eight high impact journals to investigate the existence of a peculiar prevalence of p-values just below .05 (i.e., a bump) in the psychological literature, and a potential increase thereof over time. We indeed found evidence for a bump just below .05 in the distribution of exactly reported p-values in the journals Developmental Psychology, Journal of Applied Psychology, and Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, but the bump did not increase over the years and disappeared when using recalculated p-values. We found clear and direct evidence for the QRP ``incorrect rounding of p-value'' (John, Loewenstein & Prelec, 2012) in all psychology journals. Finally, we also investigated monotonic excess of p-values, an effect of certain QRPs that has been neglected in previous research, and developed two measures to detect this by modeling the distributions of statistically significant p-values. Using simulations and applying the two measures to the retrieved test results, we argue that, although one of the measures suggests the use of QRPs in psychology, it is difficult to draw general conclusions concerning QRPs based on modeling of p-value distributions.
KW - Caliper test
KW - Data peeking
KW - NHST
KW - p-values
KW - QRP
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84966333692&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.7717/peerj.1935
DO - 10.7717/peerj.1935
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84966333692
SN - 2167-8359
VL - 2016
JO - PeerJ
JF - PeerJ
IS - 4
M1 - e1935
ER -