Abstract
An overall conclusion drawn from this scenario analysis is that of the enormous
opportunities related to the utilisation of biomass as a resource for global energy use in
the coming decades. The current use of bioenergy is about 50 EJ/yr, and the potential of
biomass as an energy source in 2050 ranges from the current level of use to 400 EJ/yr.
This range is so wide that serious questions arise in relation to conclusions based on
these analyses. In general, scenarios differ from forecasts and they should be considered more as tools
for strategic planning. Scenarios are possible routes to the future. They do not represent
any kind of probabilities related to future development. The scenarios created give only
one overview of how the use of bioenergy and biomass markets may look in 2020.
Despite this, these scenarios offer a good overall view of the alternative future states of
the international biomass market and therefore suggest that, rather than there being just
one possible path to take, there are several, alternative ways. The creation of the
scenarios does not mean that one and only one scenario will be the reality in 2020; in
fact, scenarios may be realised in parallel. This may help to identify possible future
events and development in the coming decades.
| Original language | English |
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| Qualification | Doctor of Philosophy |
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| Supervisors/Advisors |
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| Award date | 15 Dec 2011 |
| Place of Publication | Mikkeli, Finland |
| Publisher | |
| Print ISBNs | 978-952-265-172-3 |
| Publication status | Published - 15 Dec 2011 |