Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050

Rik van Heerden; Oreane Y. Edelenbosch; Vassilis Daioglou; Thomas Le Gallic; Luiz Bernardo Baptista; Alice Di Bella; Francesco Pietro Colelli; Johannes Emmerling; Panagiotis Fragkos; Robin Hasse; Johanna Hoppe; Paul Kishimoto; Florian Leblanc; Julien Lefèvre; Gunnar Luderer; Giacomo Marangoni; Alessio Mastrucci; Hazel Pettifor; Robert Pietzcker; Pedro Rochedo; Bas van Ruijven; Roberto Schaeffer; Charlie Wilson; Sonia Yeh; Eleftheria Zisarou; Detlef van Vuuren

doi:10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1

Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050

Rik van Heerden^*
, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch^*
, Vassilis Daioglou
, Thomas Le Gallic
, Luiz Bernardo Baptista
, Alice Di Bella
, Francesco Pietro Colelli
, Johannes Emmerling
, Panagiotis Fragkos
, Robin Hasse
, Johanna Hoppe
, Paul Kishimoto
, Florian Leblanc
, Julien Lefèvre
, Gunnar Luderer
, Giacomo Marangoni
, Alessio Mastrucci
, Hazel Pettifor
, Robert Pietzcker
, Pedro Rochedo

Bas van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Charlie Wilson, Sonia Yeh, Eleftheria Zisarou, Detlef van Vuuren

^*Corresponding author for this work

Netherlands Assessment Agency (PBL)
École des hautes études en sciences sociales
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
Polytechnic University of Milan
Ca’ Foscari University of Venice
E3M-Modelling
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Technical University of Berlin
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Delft University of Technology
University of Oxford
Khalifa University of Science and Technology
Chalmers University of Technology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Decarbonization of energy-using sectors is essential for tackling climate change. We use an ensemble of global integrated assessment models to assess CO₂ emissions reduction potentials in buildings and transport, accounting for system interactions. We focus on three intervention strategies with distinct emphases: reducing or changing activity, improving technological efficiency and electrifying energy end use. We find that these strategies can reduce emissions by 51–85% in buildings and 37–91% in transport by 2050 relative to a current policies scenario (ranges indicate model variability). Electrification has the largest potential for direct emissions reductions in both sectors. Interactions between the policies and measures that comprise the three strategies have a modest overall effect on mitigation potentials. However, combining different strategies is strongly beneficial from an energy system perspective as lower electricity demand reduces the need for costly supply-side investments and infrastructure.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	380-394
Number of pages	15
Journal	Nature Energy
Volume	10
Issue number	3
Early online date	5 Feb 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1
Publication status	Published - Mar 2025

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2025.

Funding

This project received funding from the European Union\u2019s Horizon Europe research and innovation programmes, grant agreement number 821124 (NAVIGATE; to R.v.H., O.Y.E., V.D., T.L.G., L.B.B., A.D.B., F.P.C., J.E., P.F., R.H., J.H., P.K., F.L., J.L., G.L., G.M., A.M., H.P., R.P., P.R., B.v.R., R.S., C.W., S.Y., E.Z., D.v.V.) and number 101081604 (PRISMA; to R.v.H., V.D., T.L.G., A.D.B., J.E., P.F., F.L., J.L., G.L., A.M., H.P., R.P., B.v.R., C.W., D.v.V.). Parts of this work, based on preliminary results, have been previously published in NAVIGATE project reports and presentations. The PIK team acknowledges funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research under grant agreement number 03SFK5A-2 (Ariadne; to J.H., R.H., G.L., R.P.). C.W. acknowledges funding from the European Research Council under grant agreement 101003083 (iDODDLE).

Funders	Funder number
European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programmes	101081604, 821124
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung	03SFK5A-2
European Research Council	101003083

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy
SDG 13 Climate Action

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10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1Licence: CC BY

s41560-025-01703-1Final published version, 1.55 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

van Heerden, R., Edelenbosch, O. Y., Daioglou, V., Le Gallic, T., Baptista, L. B., Di Bella, A., Colelli, F. P., Emmerling, J., Fragkos, P., Hasse, R., Hoppe, J., Kishimoto, P., Leblanc, F., Lefèvre, J., Luderer, G., Marangoni, G., Mastrucci, A., Pettifor, H., Pietzcker, R., ... van Vuuren, D. (2025). Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050. Nature Energy, 10(3), 380-394. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1

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abstract = "Decarbonization of energy-using sectors is essential for tackling climate change. We use an ensemble of global integrated assessment models to assess CO2 emissions reduction potentials in buildings and transport, accounting for system interactions. We focus on three intervention strategies with distinct emphases: reducing or changing activity, improving technological efficiency and electrifying energy end use. We find that these strategies can reduce emissions by 51–85\% in buildings and 37–91\% in transport by 2050 relative to a current policies scenario (ranges indicate model variability). Electrification has the largest potential for direct emissions reductions in both sectors. Interactions between the policies and measures that comprise the three strategies have a modest overall effect on mitigation potentials. However, combining different strategies is strongly beneficial from an energy system perspective as lower electricity demand reduces the need for costly supply-side investments and infrastructure.",

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doi = "10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1",

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van Heerden, R, Edelenbosch, OY, Daioglou, V, Le Gallic, T, Baptista, LB, Di Bella, A, Colelli, FP, Emmerling, J, Fragkos, P, Hasse, R, Hoppe, J, Kishimoto, P, Leblanc, F, Lefèvre, J, Luderer, G, Marangoni, G, Mastrucci, A, Pettifor, H, Pietzcker, R, Rochedo, P, van Ruijven, B, Schaeffer, R, Wilson, C, Yeh, S, Zisarou, E & van Vuuren, D 2025, 'Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050', Nature Energy, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 380-394. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1

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AU - van Heerden, Rik

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AU - Le Gallic, Thomas

AU - Baptista, Luiz Bernardo

AU - Di Bella, Alice

AU - Colelli, Francesco Pietro

AU - Emmerling, Johannes

AU - Fragkos, Panagiotis

AU - Hasse, Robin

AU - Hoppe, Johanna

AU - Kishimoto, Paul

AU - Leblanc, Florian

AU - Lefèvre, Julien

AU - Luderer, Gunnar

AU - Marangoni, Giacomo

AU - Mastrucci, Alessio

AU - Pettifor, Hazel

AU - Pietzcker, Robert

AU - Rochedo, Pedro

AU - van Ruijven, Bas

AU - Schaeffer, Roberto

AU - Wilson, Charlie

AU - Yeh, Sonia

AU - Zisarou, Eleftheria

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Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

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