Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050

Detlef P. van Vuuren; Caroline Zimm; Sebastian Busch; Elmar Kriegler; Julia Leininger; Dirk Messner; Nebojsa Nakicenovic; Johan Rockstrom; Keywan Riahi; Frank Sperling; Valentina Bosetti; Sarah Cornell; Owen Gaffney; Paul L. Lucas; Alexander Popp; Constantin Ruhe; Armin von Schiller; Jörn O. Schmidt; Bjoern Soergel

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2022.01.003

Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050

Detlef P. van Vuuren, Caroline Zimm, Sebastian Busch, Elmar Kriegler, Julia Leininger, Dirk Messner, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Johan Rockstrom, Keywan Riahi, Frank Sperling, Valentina Bosetti, Sarah Cornell, Owen Gaffney, Paul L. Lucas, Alexander Popp, Constantin Ruhe, Armin von Schiller, Jörn O. Schmidt, Bjoern Soergel

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

With the establishment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), countries worldwide agreed to a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all. This ambition, however, exposes a critical gap in science-based insights, namely on how to achieve the 17 SDGs simultaneously. Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help explore the needed systems' transformations. This requires a clear definition of the "target space." The 169 targets and 232 indicators used for monitoring SDG implementation cannot be used for this; they are too many, too broad, unstructured, and sometimes not formulated quantitatively. Here, we propose a streamlined set of science-based indicators and associated target values that are quantifiable and actionable to make scenario analysis meaningful, relevant, and simple enough to be transparent and communicable. The 36 targets are based on the SDGs, existing multilateral agreements, literature, and expert assessment. They include 2050 as a longer-term reference point. This target space can guide researchers in developing new sustainable development pathways.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	142-156
Number of pages	15
Journal	One Earth
Volume	5
Issue number	2
Early online date	1 Feb 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.01.003
Publication status	Published - 18 Feb 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The target space development benefitted from consultations during the TWI2050 annual meetings and follow-up consultations. The authors would like to thank in particular the following experts for their suggestions and feedback during this process: Karl-Heinz Erb, Nicklas Forsell, Petr Havlik, Francesco Burchi, David Hole, Wolfgang Lutz, Samir KC, Simon Langan, Reinhard Mechler, Frank Neher, Michael Obersteiner, Narasimha Rao, Ayyoob Sharifi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Hugo Valin, Will Steffen, Anne Goujon, Bilal Barakat, Simon Parkinson, Ed Byers, and Anteneh Dagnachew. The scientific community is invited to engage with the authors and the TWI2050 initiatives and share relevant conceptual and analytical papers that could contribute to developing the knowledge base and using the target spaces proposed here. The paper also benefitted from funding from the European Research Council under grant no. ERC-2016-ADG 743080 (J.R. and S.E.C.) and ERC-CG 819566 (D.v.V.) and support from the SHAPE project (SHAPE is part of AXIS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate and funded by FORMAS (SE), FFG/BMWFW (AT), DLR/BMBF (DE, grant no. 01LS1907A ), NWO (NL) and RCN (NO) with cofunding by the European Union (grant no. 776608 )).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors

Keywords

indicators
scenario analysis
sustainable development goals

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Cite this

van Vuuren, D. P., Zimm, C., Busch, S., Kriegler, E., Leininger, J., Messner, D., Nakicenovic, N., Rockstrom, J., Riahi, K., Sperling, F., Bosetti, V., Cornell, S., Gaffney, O., Lucas, P. L., Popp, A., Ruhe, C., von Schiller, A., Schmidt, J. O., & Soergel, B. (2022). Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050. One Earth, 5(2), 142-156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.01.003

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note = "Funding Information: The target space development benefitted from consultations during the TWI2050 annual meetings and follow-up consultations. The authors would like to thank in particular the following experts for their suggestions and feedback during this process: Karl-Heinz Erb, Nicklas Forsell, Petr Havlik, Francesco Burchi, David Hole, Wolfgang Lutz, Samir KC, Simon Langan, Reinhard Mechler, Frank Neher, Michael Obersteiner, Narasimha Rao, Ayyoob Sharifi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Hugo Valin, Will Steffen, Anne Goujon, Bilal Barakat, Simon Parkinson, Ed Byers, and Anteneh Dagnachew. The scientific community is invited to engage with the authors and the TWI2050 initiatives and share relevant conceptual and analytical papers that could contribute to developing the knowledge base and using the target spaces proposed here. The paper also benefitted from funding from the European Research Council under grant no. ERC-2016-ADG 743080 (J.R. and S.E.C.) and ERC-CG 819566 (D.v.V.) and support from the SHAPE project (SHAPE is part of AXIS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate and funded by FORMAS (SE), FFG/BMWFW (AT), DLR/BMBF (DE, grant no. 01LS1907A ), NWO (NL) and RCN (NO) with cofunding by the European Union (grant no. 776608 )). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Authors",

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van Vuuren, DP, Zimm, C, Busch, S, Kriegler, E, Leininger, J, Messner, D, Nakicenovic, N, Rockstrom, J, Riahi, K, Sperling, F, Bosetti, V, Cornell, S, Gaffney, O, Lucas, PL, Popp, A, Ruhe, C, von Schiller, A, Schmidt, JO & Soergel, B 2022, 'Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050', One Earth, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 142-156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.01.003

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AU - van Vuuren, Detlef P.

AU - Zimm, Caroline

AU - Busch, Sebastian

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AU - Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

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AU - Bosetti, Valentina

AU - Cornell, Sarah

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AU - Lucas, Paul L.

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AU - Ruhe, Constantin

AU - von Schiller, Armin

AU - Schmidt, Jörn O.

AU - Soergel, Bjoern

N1 - Funding Information: The target space development benefitted from consultations during the TWI2050 annual meetings and follow-up consultations. The authors would like to thank in particular the following experts for their suggestions and feedback during this process: Karl-Heinz Erb, Nicklas Forsell, Petr Havlik, Francesco Burchi, David Hole, Wolfgang Lutz, Samir KC, Simon Langan, Reinhard Mechler, Frank Neher, Michael Obersteiner, Narasimha Rao, Ayyoob Sharifi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Hugo Valin, Will Steffen, Anne Goujon, Bilal Barakat, Simon Parkinson, Ed Byers, and Anteneh Dagnachew. The scientific community is invited to engage with the authors and the TWI2050 initiatives and share relevant conceptual and analytical papers that could contribute to developing the knowledge base and using the target spaces proposed here. The paper also benefitted from funding from the European Research Council under grant no. ERC-2016-ADG 743080 (J.R. and S.E.C.) and ERC-CG 819566 (D.v.V.) and support from the SHAPE project (SHAPE is part of AXIS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate and funded by FORMAS (SE), FFG/BMWFW (AT), DLR/BMBF (DE, grant no. 01LS1907A ), NWO (NL) and RCN (NO) with cofunding by the European Union (grant no. 776608 )). Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors

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N2 - With the establishment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), countries worldwide agreed to a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all. This ambition, however, exposes a critical gap in science-based insights, namely on how to achieve the 17 SDGs simultaneously. Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help explore the needed systems' transformations. This requires a clear definition of the "target space." The 169 targets and 232 indicators used for monitoring SDG implementation cannot be used for this; they are too many, too broad, unstructured, and sometimes not formulated quantitatively. Here, we propose a streamlined set of science-based indicators and associated target values that are quantifiable and actionable to make scenario analysis meaningful, relevant, and simple enough to be transparent and communicable. The 36 targets are based on the SDGs, existing multilateral agreements, literature, and expert assessment. They include 2050 as a longer-term reference point. This target space can guide researchers in developing new sustainable development pathways.

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Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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