Current and future global water scarcity intensifies when accounting for surface water quality

Edward R. Jones; Marc F.P. Bierkens; Michelle T.H. van Vliet

doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02007-0

Current and future global water scarcity intensifies when accounting for surface water quality

Edward R. Jones^*, Marc F.P. Bierkens, Michelle T.H. van Vliet

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

The inadequate availability of clean water presents systemic risks to human health, food production, energy generation and ecosystem functioning. Here we evaluate population exposure to current and future water scarcity (both excluding and including water quality) using a coupled global hydrological and surface water quality model. We find that 55% of the global population are currently exposed to clean water scarcity at least one month per year, compared with 47% considering water quantity aspects only. Exposure to clean water scarcity at least one month per year increases to 56–66% by the end of the century. Increases in future exposure are typically largest in developing countries—particularly in sub-Saharan Africa—driven by a combination of water quantity and quality aspects. Strong reductions in both anthropogenic water use and pollution are therefore necessary to minimize the impact of future clean water scarcity on humans and the environment.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	629-635
Number of pages	7
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	14
Issue number	6
Early online date	2024
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02007-0
Publication status	Published - 23 May 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2024.

Funding

E.R.J. and M.T.H.v.V. were financially supported by the Netherlands Scientific Organisation (NWO) by a VIDI grant (VI.Vidi.193.019). M.T.H.v.V. was also financially supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon Europe research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 101039426 B-WEX). E.R.J. acknowledges and thanks the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) for the grant that enabled us to use the national supercomputer Snellius (project no. EINF-3999).

Funders	Funder number
Dutch Research Council (NWO) - VI.Vidi.193.019	VI.Vidi.193.019
Netherlands Scientific Organisation (NWO) by a VIDI grant	101039426 B-WEX
European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon Europe research and innovation programme	EINF-3999
Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1038/s41558-024-02007-0

s41558-024-02007-0Final published version, 19.3 MBLicence: Taverne

Cite this

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Current and future global water scarcity intensifies when accounting for surface water quality

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

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