Critical turbidity thresholds for maintenance of estuarine tidal flats worldwide

Tidal flats are shrinking in extent globally. The dynamics of the response of estuarine tidal flats to global environmental changes remain unclear. Tidal-flat morphology is shaped by the interplay among wave and tidal forces, river discharge and sediment supply, and preservation of tidal flats requires a balance between erosional and depositional processes be maintained. Here we assess tidal-flat morphodynamic changes of 40 globally distributed estuaries with contrasting tidal amplitudes between 1986 and 2011 from analyses of 4,939 satellite images. We consider both vegetated and unvegetated intertidal areas. From comparisons with remote-sensing-derived turbidity estimates, we identify a critical turbidity threshold indicative of a minimum sediment supply along with the hydrodynamic forces, which is necessary to maintain tidal flats. Tidal flats in intertidal areas in estuaries with low turbidity face retreat, with the critical turbidity threshold increasing with increasing tidal amplitudes. By contrast, estuaries with high turbidity tend to exhibit laterally or vertically expanding tidal flats. However, despite estuaries with limited tidal ranges having relatively low turbidity thresholds, environmental or anthropogenic alterations can still adversely affect the morphology of tidal flats. Our findings demonstrate the need to consider sediment supply in integrated estuarine management strategies to maintain the ecological integrity and flood defence function of tidal flats.