Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets leaves world at high risk

Joeri Rogelj*, Taryn Fransen, Michel G.J. den Elzen, Robin D. Lamboll, Clea Schumer, Takeshi Kuramochi, Frederic Hans, Silke Mooldijk, Joana Portugal-Pereira

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Global climate policy is undergoing a rite of passage. What used to be a conversation about ambitious target setting now focuses increasingly on implementation and interventions to achieve these targets. This liminal transition from ambition to implementation is complex and presents deep ambiguities that are challenging for scientists to communicate and decision-makers to fathom. A critical question is whether we can believe that countries will deliver on the commitments they have made. By evaluating policy characteristics of countries’ net-zero targets, we can assign the targets credibility ratings, then estimate how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and temperature are differentiated by our confidence in the targets. When we consider the credibility of current climate pledges, our assessment shows that the world remains far from delivering a safe climate future.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1014-1016
Number of pages3
JournalScience
Volume380
Issue number6649
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors thank the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) for hosting the emission pathway data used in the IPCC SR15 and IPCC AR6 WG III and C. Smith for making the FaIR model and its IPCC AR6 calibration openly accessible and reusable. J.R. and R.D.L. acknowledge support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreements no. 820829 (CONSTRAIN) and no. 101003687 (PROVIDE), and under no. 101003536 (ESM2025) for J.R. only. T.F. acknowledges support from the Link Foundation.

Funding Information:
The authorsthanktheIntegratedAssessmentModeling Consortium(IAMC) andtheInternationalInstituteforApplied SystemsAnalysis(IIASA) forhostingtheemission pathway data usedin theIPCCSR15andIPCCAR6WGIIIandC.Smith formakingtheFaIRmodelandits IPCCAR6calibration openly accessibleandreusable.J.R.andR.D.L.acknowledgesup-port from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programundergrantagreements no.820829 (CONSTRAIN) andno.101003687(PROVIDE),andunderno. 101003536 (ESM2025) forJ.R.only.T.F.acknowledges sup-portfromtheLinkFoundation.

Funding

The authors thank the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) for hosting the emission pathway data used in the IPCC SR15 and IPCC AR6 WG III and C. Smith for making the FaIR model and its IPCC AR6 calibration openly accessible and reusable. J.R. and R.D.L. acknowledge support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreements no. 820829 (CONSTRAIN) and no. 101003687 (PROVIDE), and under no. 101003536 (ESM2025) for J.R. only. T.F. acknowledges support from the Link Foundation. The authorsthanktheIntegratedAssessmentModeling Consortium(IAMC) andtheInternationalInstituteforApplied SystemsAnalysis(IIASA) forhostingtheemission pathway data usedin theIPCCSR15andIPCCAR6WGIIIandC.Smith formakingtheFaIRmodelandits IPCCAR6calibration openly accessibleandreusable.J.R.andR.D.L.acknowledgesup-port from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programundergrantagreements no.820829 (CONSTRAIN) andno.101003687(PROVIDE),andunderno. 101003536 (ESM2025) forJ.R.only.T.F.acknowledges sup-portfromtheLinkFoundation.

Keywords

  • Climate
  • Climate Change
  • Environmental Policy

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