Continuous sterane and phytane δ13C record reveals a substantial pCO2 decline since the mid-Miocene

Caitlyn R. Witkowski; Anna S. von der Heydt; Paul J. Valdes; Marcel T.J. van der Meer; Stefan Schouten; Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté

doi:10.1038/s41467-024-47676-9

Continuous sterane and phytane δ¹³C record reveals a substantial pCO₂ decline since the mid-Miocene

Caitlyn R. Witkowski^*, Anna S. von der Heydt, Paul J. Valdes, Marcel T.J. van der Meer, Stefan Schouten, Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté

^*Corresponding author for this work

University of Bristol

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Constraining the relationship between temperature and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (pCO₂) is essential to model near-future climate. Here, we reconstruct pCO₂ values over the past 15 million years (Myr), providing a series of analogues for possible near-future temperatures and pCO₂, from a single continuous site (DSDP Site 467, California coast). We reconstruct pCO₂ values using sterane and phytane, compounds that many phytoplankton produce and then become fossilised in sediment. From 15.0-0.3 Myr ago, our reconstructed pCO₂ values steadily decline from 650 ± 150 to 280 ± 75 ppmv, mirroring global temperature decline. Using our new range of pCO₂ values, we calculate average Earth system sensitivity and equilibrium climate sensitivity, resulting in 13.9 °C and 7.2 °C per doubling of pCO₂, respectively. These values are significantly higher than IPCC global warming estimations, consistent or higher than some recent state-of-the-art climate models, and consistent with other proxy-based estimates.

Original language	English
Article number	5192
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	15
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-47676-9
Publication status	Published - Dec 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2024.

Funding

We thank Vittoria Lauretano for researching updates to the age model, Jort Ossebaar, Alle Tjipke Hoekstra, and Ronald van Bommel at the NIOZ for technical support, and Jack Middelburg, Heather Stoll, and Roderik van der Wal for scientific input. This study received funding from the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC) through a gravitation grant (024.002.001) to JSSD and SS from the Dutch Ministry for Education, Culture and Science. AvdH and PJV acknowledge support from the TiPES project ('Tipping Points in the Earth System') from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 820970. CRW is supported by the Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship (DHF\R1\221014).

Funders	Funder number
Royal Society	024.002.001
Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC) through a gravitation grant
Dutch Ministry for Education, Culture and Science	820970
European Union	DHF\R1\221014
Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Cite this

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title = "Continuous sterane and phytane δ13C record reveals a substantial pCO2 decline since the mid-Miocene",

abstract = "Constraining the relationship between temperature and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (pCO2) is essential to model near-future climate. Here, we reconstruct pCO2 values over the past 15 million years (Myr), providing a series of analogues for possible near-future temperatures and pCO2, from a single continuous site (DSDP Site 467, California coast). We reconstruct pCO2 values using sterane and phytane, compounds that many phytoplankton produce and then become fossilised in sediment. From 15.0-0.3 Myr ago, our reconstructed pCO2 values steadily decline from 650 ± 150 to 280 ± 75 ppmv, mirroring global temperature decline. Using our new range of pCO2 values, we calculate average Earth system sensitivity and equilibrium climate sensitivity, resulting in 13.9 °C and 7.2 °C per doubling of pCO2, respectively. These values are significantly higher than IPCC global warming estimations, consistent or higher than some recent state-of-the-art climate models, and consistent with other proxy-based estimates.",

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AU - Schouten, Stefan

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