Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review

Nico Wunderling; Anna S von der Heydt; Yevgeny Aksenov; Stephen Barker; Robbin Bastiaansen; Victor Brovkin; Maura Brunetti; Victor Couplet; Thomas Kleinen; Caroline Lear; Johannes Jakob Lohmann; Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta; Sacha Sinet; Didier Swingedouw; Ricarda Winkelmann; Pallavi Anand; Jonathan Barichivich; Sebastian Bathiany; Mara Baudena; John Bruun; Cristiano Chiessi; Helen Coxall; David Docquier; Jonathan Donges; Swinda K.J. Falkena; Ann Kristin Klose; David Obura; Juan Carlos Rocha; Stefanie Rynders; Norman J. Steinert; Matteo Willeit

doi:10.5194/esd-15-41-2024

Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review

Nico Wunderling^*
, Anna S von der Heydt^*
, Yevgeny Aksenov
, Stephen Barker
, Robbin Bastiaansen
, Victor Brovkin
, Maura Brunetti
, Victor Couplet
, Thomas Kleinen
, Caroline Lear
, Johannes Jakob Lohmann
, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta
, Sacha Sinet
, Didier Swingedouw
, Ricarda Winkelmann
, Pallavi Anand
, Jonathan Barichivich
, Sebastian Bathiany
, Mara Baudena
, John Bruun

Cristiano Chiessi, Helen Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan Donges, Swinda K.J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Carlos Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman J. Steinert, Matteo Willeit

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

Abstract

Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While uncertainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but also more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 circle C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpassed 2.0 circle C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	41-74
Number of pages	34
Journal	Earth System Dynamics
Volume	15
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024
Publication status	Published - 26 Jan 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.

Funding

This research has been supported by the European Research Council, H2020 European Research Council (grant nos. 743080, 820575, 869304, 820970, 101043214, 820989, and 101059547), the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (grant nos. 01LS2001A, 01LP1921A, 01LP1920B, and 01LP1917D), the Natural Environment Research Council (grant nos. NE/P019102/1, NE/W004933/1, NE/W004984/1, and NE/V004875/1), the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant no. CRSII5_180253), Research Councils UK (grant nos. EP/P0167741/1, NE/M004120/1, and ST/V005898/1), the Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (grant no. VI.C.202.081), the Fondation BNP Paribas (grant no. CORESCAM), the United States Agency for International Development (grant no. SWAMP), the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (grant no. NESSC), the HORIZON EUROPE Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (grant no. 956170), the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (grant nos. 2018/15123-4 and 2019/24349-9), the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (grant no. 312458/2020-7), UK Research and Innovation (grant no. 10039429), and the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office (grant no. RT/23/RESIST). This work was supported by the TipESM project funded by the European Union's Horizon Europe research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 101137673 as well as the Swedish Research Council (DNR 2008-2859). This review article has been carried out within the framework of the Global Tipping Points Report 2023. We thank Timothy Lenton, David Armstrong McKay, and Sina Loriani for many fruitful discussions within this framework. Nico Wunderling and Jonathan F. Donges acknowledge support from the European Research Council advanced grant project ERA (Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene, ERC-2016-ADG-743080). Jonathan F. Donges is grateful for financial support by the project CHANGES funded by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) within the framework “PIK_Change” under grant 01LS2001A. Ricarda Winkelmann acknowledges financial support via the Earth Commission, hosted by FutureEarth. The Earth Commission is the science component of the Global Commons Alliance, a sponsored project of Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors, with support from Oak Foundation, MAVA, Porticus, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Herlin Foundation, and the Global Environment Facility. The Earth Commission is also supported by the Global Challenges Foundation. Victor Couplet is funded as a research fellow by the Belgian National Fund of Scientific Research (F.S.R. – FNRS). Ann Kristin Klose and Ricarda Winkelmann acknowledge support by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 820575 (TiPACCs) and no. 869304 (PROTECT). Thomas Kleinen acknowledges support through the project PalMod, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), under grant no. 01LP1921A. Maura Brunetti acknowledges financial support from the Swiss National Science Foundation (Sinergia project no. CRSII5_180253). Coastal and marine sections would like to acknowledge the generous support of the BNP PARIBAS Foundation for the CORESCAM project, part of the 2019 call on Biodiversity and Climate Change, and the USAID for support for the SWAMP project. John T. Bruun gratefully acknowledges the UK Research Councils funded Models2Decisions grant (M2DPP035: EP/P0167741/1), ReCICLE (NE/M004120/1), and STFC Spark Award (ST/V005898/1), which helped fund his involvement with this work. Anna von der Heydt and Swinda K. J. Falkena acknowledge funding by the Dutch Research Council (NWO) under a Vici project to Anna von der Heydt (with project number VI.C.202.081 of the NWO Talent program). Anna von der Heydt has worked under the program of the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC), financially supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science (OCW). Anna von der Heydt, Robbin Bastiaansen, and Sacha Sinet acknowledge funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 820970 (this paper is TiPES paper no. 232) and under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 956170 (CriticalEarth). Caroline H. Lear acknowledges NERC funding for SWEET grant NE/P019102/1. Jonathan Barichivich acknowledges funding by the European Research Council (ERC) under the Horizon Europe research and innovation program (ERC-starting grant CATES, grant agreement no. 101043214). Cristiano M. Chiessi acknowledges financial support from FAPESP (grants 2018/15123-4 and 2019/24349-9) and CNPq (grant 312458/2020-7). Yevgeny Aksenov and Stefanie Rynders acknowledge support from the following projects: COMFORT (grant agreement no. 820989) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program; the EC Horizon Europe project OptimESM “Optimal High Resolution Earth System Models for Exploring Future Climate Changes” under grant 101081193 and UKRI grant 10039429; EPOC, EU grant 101059547; UKRI grant 10038003; and the UK NERC projects LTS-M BIOPOLE (NE/W004933/1), CANARI (NE/W004984/1), and Consequences of Arctic Warming for European Climate and Extreme Weather (ArctiCONNECT, NE/V004875/1). Yevgeny Aksenov and Stefanie Rynders acknowledge the use of the ARCHER UK National Supercomputing and JASMIN. David Docquier is funded by the Belgian Science Policy Office (BELSPO) under the RESIST project (contract no. RT/23/RESIST). Mara Baudena acknowledges the Italian National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC) – National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), Mission 4 Component 2, Investment 1.4 of the Italian Ministry of University and Research, funded by the European Union – NextGenerationEU (project code CN_00000033). Matteo Willeit acknowledges financial support by the German climate modeling project PalMod supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) as a Research for Sustainability initiative (FONA) (grant nos. 01LP1920B and 01LP1917D). Didier Swingedouw acknowledges financial support by the RRI “Tackling Global Change” from the University of Bordeaux and by the INSU/LEFE DECORATING and the UKRI DECADAL projects.

Funders	Funder number
Belgian National Fund of Scientific Research
Earth Commission
European Union's Horizon Europe research and innovation program	101137673
Herlin Foundation
Horizon Europe research and innovation program
INSU
Italian National Biodiversity Future Center
LEFE
MAVA, Porticus, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
NBFC
NRRP
United States Agency for International Development
Oak Foundation
Canarie
H2020 European Research Council	ERC-2016-ADG-743080, 820989, 101059547, 101043214, 820970, 820575, 869304
H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions
Global Environment Facility
UK Research and Innovation	10039429, 10038003
HORIZON EUROPE Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions	956170
HORIZON EUROPE European Innovation Council	101081193
Natural Environment Research Council	NE/W004933/1, NE/W004984/1, NE/V004875/1, NE/P019102/1
Science and Technology Facilities Council	ST/V005898/1
Research Councils UK	EP/P0167741/1, M2DPP035, NE/M004120/1
European Commission	CN_00000033
European Research Council
Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung	CRSII5_180253
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo	2018/15123-4, 2019/24349-9
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung	01LP1917D, 01LS2001A, 01LP1921A, 01LP1920B
Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS
Belgian Federal Science Policy Office	RT/23/RESIST
Ministerie van onderwijs, cultuur en wetenschap	232
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek
Ministero dell’Istruzione, dell’Università e della Ricerca
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico	312458/2020-7
Vetenskapsrådet	DNR 2008-2859
Université de Bordeaux
Horizon 2020
Fondation BNP Paribas
Rangeland Research Institute, University of Alberta
Netherlands Earth System Science Centre

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

Arctic sea-ice
Meridional overturning circulation
Surface mass-balance
Millennial-scale variability
Eocene-oligocene transition
Nino-southern oscillation
Last glacial maximum
Pine island glacier
Earth system models
North-atlantic

Access to Document

10.5194/esd-15-41-2024Licence: CC BY

esd-15-41-2024Final published version, 3.37 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

Wunderling, N., Heydt, A. S. V. D., Aksenov, Y., Barker, S., Bastiaansen, R., Brovkin, V., Brunetti, M., Couplet, V., Kleinen, T., Lear, C., Lohmann, J. J., Roman-Cuesta, R. M., Sinet, S., Swingedouw, D., Winkelmann, R., Anand, P., Barichivich, J., Bathiany, S., Baudena, M., ... Willeit, M. (2024). Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review. Earth System Dynamics, 15(1), 41-74. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024

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abstract = "Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While uncertainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but also more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 circle C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpassed 2.0 circle C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge.",

keywords = "Arctic sea-ice, Meridional overturning circulation, Surface mass-balance, Millennial-scale variability, Eocene-oligocene transition, Nino-southern oscillation, Last glacial maximum, Pine island glacier, Earth system models, North-atlantic",

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Wunderling, N, Heydt, ASVD, Aksenov, Y, Barker, S, Bastiaansen, R, Brovkin, V, Brunetti, M, Couplet, V, Kleinen, T, Lear, C, Lohmann, JJ, Roman-Cuesta, RM, Sinet, S, Swingedouw, D, Winkelmann, R, Anand, P, Barichivich, J, Bathiany, S, Baudena, M, Bruun, J, Chiessi, C, Coxall, H, Docquier, D, Donges, J, Falkena, SKJ, Klose, AK, Obura, D, Rocha, JC, Rynders, S, Steinert, NJ & Willeit, M 2024, 'Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review', Earth System Dynamics, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 41-74. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024

TY - JOUR

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AU - Wunderling, Nico

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AU - Aksenov, Yevgeny

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AU - Brovkin, Victor

AU - Brunetti, Maura

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AU - Roman-Cuesta, Rosa Maria

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AU - Anand, Pallavi

AU - Barichivich, Jonathan

AU - Bathiany, Sebastian

AU - Baudena, Mara

AU - Bruun, John

AU - Chiessi, Cristiano

AU - Coxall, Helen

AU - Docquier, David

AU - Donges, Jonathan

AU - Falkena, Swinda K.J.

AU - Klose, Ann Kristin

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N2 - Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While uncertainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but also more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 circle C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpassed 2.0 circle C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge.

AB - Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While uncertainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but also more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 circle C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpassed 2.0 circle C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge.

KW - Arctic sea-ice

KW - Meridional overturning circulation

KW - Surface mass-balance

KW - Millennial-scale variability

KW - Eocene-oligocene transition

KW - Nino-southern oscillation

KW - Last glacial maximum

KW - Pine island glacier

KW - Earth system models

KW - North-atlantic

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U2 - 10.5194/esd-15-41-2024

DO - 10.5194/esd-15-41-2024

M3 - Review article

SN - 2190-4979

VL - 15

SP - 41

EP - 74

JO - Earth System Dynamics

JF - Earth System Dynamics

IS - 1

ER -

Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

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