Climate change perceptions, expectations, observations, and projections at Lake Victoria

Stefan Liersch*, Karlijn van den Broek, Tobias Pilz, Usman Isyaku, Maryse Chappin, Gisela Böhm, Bwambale Mbilingi, Joseph Luomba, Fonda Jane Awuor, Robert Kayanda, Shigalla Mahongo, Charles Adedayo Ogunbode, Chrispine Nyamweya, Godfrey K Kubiriza , Patrick Otuo Wanguche, Christopher Malanda Aura, Mary A Kishe, William Okello, Paul Njoroge Kariuki, Emelda Teikwa AdamHagen Koch

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalLetterAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Understanding people's perceptions of climate change and associated environmental risks is paramount in assessing how individuals respond to climate change. Awareness of the consequences of climate change determines the present and future behaviours and expectations, as well as the actions taken to mitigate the likely impacts. We surveyed the perceived and expected climate change consequences of experts and community members in the Lake Victoria basin in East Africa, compared them with hydro-meteorological observations and projections, and established that some perceived trends, such as increasing temperature or rainfall intensity, correspond with meteorological observations. However, the perceived increase in drought occurrence (believed to be a recent consequence), was not substantiated by the meteorological data. It was only in the northwestern region that drought frequency increased since the year 2000, while the rest of the basin did not experience such a trend. Community members were concerned about the already noticeable consequences of climate change on their livelihoods through agriculture or fishing, while experts were mainly focused on the amplification of hazards such as floods and droughts. This divergence may imply that experts underestimate the consequences that society is already facing. Nevertheless, both groups expect that climate change will undoubtedly lead to the deterioration of human well-being by affecting food security, increasing poverty, and increasing the incidence of disease. This is a serious concern that requires immediate attention. Such insights into people's climate change perceptions can help policy-makers, researchers, and community members to better tailor adaptation solutions acceptable to the local context. Effective governance is essential to enable people to adapt to climate change and other challenges, including those resulting from the impacts of globalisation, demographic trends, and the degradation and scarcity of resources.

Original languageEnglish
Article number121001
Number of pages30
JournalEnvironmental Research Communications
Volume6
Issue number12
Early online date18 Nov 2024
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2 Dec 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.

Funding

We would like to acknowledge the people who participated in the two surveys and the research assistants conducting the interviews with community members. This research was funded in the frame of the AXIS MECCA project (https://mecca.sites.uu.nl/) by ERA-NET co-fund action initiated by JPI Climate, funded by BMBF (Germany, Grant 01LS1909A), NWO (The Netherlands, Grant 7934), and RCN (Norway, Grant 300227) with co-funding by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Framework Program (Grant 776608).

FundersFunder number
AXIS MECCA project
ERA-NET - BMBF (Germany)01LS1909A
NWO (The Netherlands)7934
RCN (Norway)300227
European Union776608

    Keywords

    • Climate change perceptions
    • Comparing perceptions and observations
    • East Africa
    • Lake Victoria

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