Climate change drives low dissolved oxygen and increased hypoxia rates in rivers worldwide

Duncan J. Graham; Marc F.P. Bierkens; Edward R. Jones; Edwin H. Sutanudjaja; Michelle T.H. van Vliet

doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02483-y

Climate change drives low dissolved oxygen and increased hypoxia rates in rivers worldwide

Duncan J. Graham^*
, Marc F.P. Bierkens
, Edward R. Jones
, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja
, Michelle T.H. van Vliet

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Increased water temperatures under climate change will probably cause decreases in dissolved oxygen and an associated increase in the number of days with hypoxia. This could have major consequences for freshwater ecosystems, but the extent of this threat remains unclear. Here we analyse trends in dissolved oxygen concentrations and days with stress and hypoxia in rivers worldwide between the periods 1980–2019 and 2020–2100 under global change. To achieve this, we train a hybrid process-based and machine learning model on approximately 2.6 million observations of dissolved oxygen, and we apply this model under both past and future conditions globally. The model projects significant decreasing trends in dissolved oxygen in most of the world’s rivers, resulting in on average 8.8 ± 2.3 more hypoxia days per decade globally between the years 2020 and 2100, and indicating a potentially major threat to freshwater ecosystems worldwide.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1348-1354
Number of pages	7
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	15
Issue number	12
Early online date	11 Nov 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02483-y
Publication status	Published - Dec 2025

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2025.

Funding

We thank J. Wang (Utrecht University) for their inputs related to biogeochemistry. We would like to thank A. Schipper (Radboud University and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) for providing valuable feedback on this study. The calculations of the study were computed on the Dutch national supercomputer Snellius with the support of SURFsara. D.J.G. and M.T.H.v.V. were financially supported by the Netherlands Scientific Organisation VIDI grant no. VI.Vidi.193.019. In addition, M.T.H.v.V. acknowledges funding from the European Research Council B-WEX grant no. 101039426.

Funders	Funder number
Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving
Radboud Universiteit
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek
European Research Council	101039426

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Cite this

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title = "Climate change drives low dissolved oxygen and increased hypoxia rates in rivers worldwide",

abstract = "Increased water temperatures under climate change will probably cause decreases in dissolved oxygen and an associated increase in the number of days with hypoxia. This could have major consequences for freshwater ecosystems, but the extent of this threat remains unclear. Here we analyse trends in dissolved oxygen concentrations and days with stress and hypoxia in rivers worldwide between the periods 1980–2019 and 2020–2100 under global change. To achieve this, we train a hybrid process-based and machine learning model on approximately 2.6 million observations of dissolved oxygen, and we apply this model under both past and future conditions globally. The model projects significant decreasing trends in dissolved oxygen in most of the world{\textquoteright}s rivers, resulting in on average 8.8 ± 2.3 more hypoxia days per decade globally between the years 2020 and 2100, and indicating a potentially major threat to freshwater ecosystems worldwide.",

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doi = "10.1038/s41558-025-02483-y",

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AU - Bierkens, Marc F.P.

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AU - van Vliet, Michelle T.H.

PY - 2025/12

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Climate change drives low dissolved oxygen and increased hypoxia rates in rivers worldwide

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

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