Climate and human development impacts on municipal water demand: A spatially-explicit global modeling framework

Simon C. Parkinson; Nils Johnson; Narasimha D. Rao; Bryan Jones; Michelle T.H. van Vliet; Oliver Fricko; Ned Djilali; Keywan Riahi; Martina Flörke

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.002

Climate and human development impacts on municipal water demand: A spatially-explicit global modeling framework

Simon C. Parkinson^*
, Nils Johnson
, Narasimha D. Rao
, Bryan Jones
, Michelle T.H. van Vliet
, Oliver Fricko
, Ned Djilali
, Keywan Riahi
, Martina Flörke

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Municipal water systems provide crucial services for human well-being, and will undergo a major transformation this century following global technological, socioeconomic and environmental changes. Future demand scenarios integrating these drivers over multi-decadal planning horizons are needed to develop effective adaptation strategies. This paper presents a new long-term scenario modeling framework that projects future daily municipal water demand at a 1/8° global spatial resolution. The methodology incorporates improved representations of important demand drivers such as urbanization and climate change. The framework is applied across multiple future socioeconomic and climate scenarios to explore municipal water demand uncertainties over the 21st century. The scenario analysis reveals that achieving a low-carbon development pathway can potentially reduce global municipal water demands in 2060 by 2–4%, although the timing and scale of impacts vary significantly with geographic location.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	266-278
Number of pages	13
Journal	Environmental Modelling and Software
Volume	85
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.002
Publication status	Published - 1 Nov 2016
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) is acknowledged for providing the global climate model output for this study. SCP was supported in part by a post-graduate scholarship from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. ND acknowledges with thanks funding for this project by the Deanship of Scientific Research (DSR), King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, under grant no. (1-135-36-HiCi).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Elsevier Ltd

Funding

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) is acknowledged for providing the global climate model output for this study. SCP was supported in part by a post-graduate scholarship from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. ND acknowledges with thanks funding for this project by the Deanship of Scientific Research (DSR), King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, under grant no. (1-135-36-HiCi).

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities
SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

Climate change impacts
Downscaling
Integrated assessment modeling
Long-term planning
Urbanization
Water demand

Access to Document

10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.002

Cite this

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title = "Climate and human development impacts on municipal water demand: A spatially-explicit global modeling framework",

abstract = "Municipal water systems provide crucial services for human well-being, and will undergo a major transformation this century following global technological, socioeconomic and environmental changes. Future demand scenarios integrating these drivers over multi-decadal planning horizons are needed to develop effective adaptation strategies. This paper presents a new long-term scenario modeling framework that projects future daily municipal water demand at a 1/8° global spatial resolution. The methodology incorporates improved representations of important demand drivers such as urbanization and climate change. The framework is applied across multiple future socioeconomic and climate scenarios to explore municipal water demand uncertainties over the 21st century. The scenario analysis reveals that achieving a low-carbon development pathway can potentially reduce global municipal water demands in 2060 by 2–4\%, although the timing and scale of impacts vary significantly with geographic location.",

keywords = "Climate change impacts, Downscaling, Integrated assessment modeling, Long-term planning, Urbanization, Water demand",

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note = "Funding Information: The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) is acknowledged for providing the global climate model output for this study. SCP was supported in part by a post-graduate scholarship from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. ND acknowledges with thanks funding for this project by the Deanship of Scientific Research (DSR), King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, under grant no. (1-135-36-HiCi). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2016 Elsevier Ltd",

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doi = "10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.002",

language = "English",

volume = "85",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate and human development impacts on municipal water demand

T2 - A spatially-explicit global modeling framework

AU - Parkinson, Simon C.

AU - Johnson, Nils

AU - Rao, Narasimha D.

AU - Jones, Bryan

AU - van Vliet, Michelle T.H.

AU - Fricko, Oliver

AU - Djilali, Ned

AU - Riahi, Keywan

AU - Flörke, Martina

N1 - Funding Information: The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) is acknowledged for providing the global climate model output for this study. SCP was supported in part by a post-graduate scholarship from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. ND acknowledges with thanks funding for this project by the Deanship of Scientific Research (DSR), King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, under grant no. (1-135-36-HiCi). Publisher Copyright: © 2016 Elsevier Ltd

PY - 2016/11/1

Y1 - 2016/11/1

N2 - Municipal water systems provide crucial services for human well-being, and will undergo a major transformation this century following global technological, socioeconomic and environmental changes. Future demand scenarios integrating these drivers over multi-decadal planning horizons are needed to develop effective adaptation strategies. This paper presents a new long-term scenario modeling framework that projects future daily municipal water demand at a 1/8° global spatial resolution. The methodology incorporates improved representations of important demand drivers such as urbanization and climate change. The framework is applied across multiple future socioeconomic and climate scenarios to explore municipal water demand uncertainties over the 21st century. The scenario analysis reveals that achieving a low-carbon development pathway can potentially reduce global municipal water demands in 2060 by 2–4%, although the timing and scale of impacts vary significantly with geographic location.

AB - Municipal water systems provide crucial services for human well-being, and will undergo a major transformation this century following global technological, socioeconomic and environmental changes. Future demand scenarios integrating these drivers over multi-decadal planning horizons are needed to develop effective adaptation strategies. This paper presents a new long-term scenario modeling framework that projects future daily municipal water demand at a 1/8° global spatial resolution. The methodology incorporates improved representations of important demand drivers such as urbanization and climate change. The framework is applied across multiple future socioeconomic and climate scenarios to explore municipal water demand uncertainties over the 21st century. The scenario analysis reveals that achieving a low-carbon development pathway can potentially reduce global municipal water demands in 2060 by 2–4%, although the timing and scale of impacts vary significantly with geographic location.

KW - Climate change impacts

KW - Downscaling

KW - Integrated assessment modeling

KW - Long-term planning

KW - Urbanization

KW - Water demand

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84985920107

U2 - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.002

DO - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.002

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84985920107

SN - 1364-8152

VL - 85

SP - 266

EP - 278

JO - Environmental Modelling and Software

JF - Environmental Modelling and Software

ER -

Climate and human development impacts on municipal water demand: A spatially-explicit global modeling framework

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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