Clarifying and strengthening the role of law and governance in climate scenario frameworks

Annisa Triyanti; Haomiao Du; Dries L.T. Hegger; Peter P.J. Driessen; Helena F.M.W. van Rijswick; Murray Scown; Herman Kasper Gilissen

doi:10.1016/j.esg.2023.100199

Clarifying and strengthening the role of law and governance in climate scenario frameworks

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and shared policy assumptions (SPAs) are lauded as a common basis for climate scenario research across disciplines, yet they lack essential legal and governance elements that are indispensable when assessing future development pathways. This article sets out to address this shortcoming by explaining the interrelated but distinct features of law and governance and their downplayed roles in climate scenario research. We explore the extent to which legal and govsternance features are included in the current SSP and SPA development process and then suggest that the substance of legal and governance features in climate scenario frameworks could be enriched in four ways, by: 1) identifying the nuances of legal and policy objectives; 2) assessing the effectiveness of institutions and instruments; 3) integrating the assessment of the flexibility and adaptability of legal and governance systems into the projection of long-term pathways; and 4) responding to the urgent need to integrate climate and energy justice while still cautiously considering normative principles to be opportunities and challenges. We further argue that future climate scenario frameworks should consider law and governance at multiple scales and in distinct contexts to improve the usability, applicability, and reliability of the integrated pathways. Finally, in order to project future risks, this article suggests improvement regarding the processes, including inter- and transdisciplinary inclusion that can potentially be considered when furthering climate scenario frameworks that enhance understanding of the complex, uncertain future and the long-term consequences of certain decisions.

Original language	English
Article number	100199
Number of pages	10
Journal	Earth System Governance
Volume	18
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esg.2023.100199
Publication status	Published - Dec 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors

Funding

Concomitantly with the development of RCPs and SSPs, the scenario development communities realized the need to augment SSPs with SPAs. The definition of SPAs is based on three attributes (Kriegler et al., 2014): 1) Global collection of climate policy goals, 2) Characteristics of the global collection of policy and measures introduced to reach the policy goals, and 3) Implementation limits and obstacles to the extent they are considered and are not part of an SSP. Policy regimes and measures that support adaptation include, e.g., technology transfer mechanisms (Kriegler et al., 2012, p. 813). In addition, the quality of the adaptation governance process was mentioned by outlining the problem of corruption and vested interests. Furthermore, the effectiveness of policy implementation for climate adaptation was also touched upon; for example, in relation to the enforcement of creating norms and land-use regulations. Finally, the Kriegler et al. (2014) study presented a selection of illustrative global policy attributes for SPA narratives related to adaptation, such as capacity building (the size of a global adaptation fund) and international insurance (availability of climate impact insurance in different countries). Once again, there is an implicit legal dimension in the SPA framework: the broader concept of “policy regimes and measures”.

Funders	Funder number
RCPs	813

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy
SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

Climate scenario
Governance
Integrated assessment models
Law
Shared climate policy assumptions (SPA)
Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP)

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Cite this

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title = "Clarifying and strengthening the role of law and governance in climate scenario frameworks",

abstract = "Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and shared policy assumptions (SPAs) are lauded as a common basis for climate scenario research across disciplines, yet they lack essential legal and governance elements that are indispensable when assessing future development pathways. This article sets out to address this shortcoming by explaining the interrelated but distinct features of law and governance and their downplayed roles in climate scenario research. We explore the extent to which legal and govsternance features are included in the current SSP and SPA development process and then suggest that the substance of legal and governance features in climate scenario frameworks could be enriched in four ways, by: 1) identifying the nuances of legal and policy objectives; 2) assessing the effectiveness of institutions and instruments; 3) integrating the assessment of the flexibility and adaptability of legal and governance systems into the projection of long-term pathways; and 4) responding to the urgent need to integrate climate and energy justice while still cautiously considering normative principles to be opportunities and challenges. We further argue that future climate scenario frameworks should consider law and governance at multiple scales and in distinct contexts to improve the usability, applicability, and reliability of the integrated pathways. Finally, in order to project future risks, this article suggests improvement regarding the processes, including inter- and transdisciplinary inclusion that can potentially be considered when furthering climate scenario frameworks that enhance understanding of the complex, uncertain future and the long-term consequences of certain decisions.",

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author = "Annisa Triyanti and Haomiao Du and Hegger, \{Dries L.T.\} and Driessen, \{Peter P.J.\} and \{van Rijswick\}, \{Helena F.M.W.\} and Murray Scown and Gilissen, \{Herman Kasper\}",

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AU - Du, Haomiao

AU - Hegger, Dries L.T.

AU - Driessen, Peter P.J.

AU - van Rijswick, Helena F.M.W.

AU - Scown, Murray

AU - Gilissen, Herman Kasper

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AB - Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and shared policy assumptions (SPAs) are lauded as a common basis for climate scenario research across disciplines, yet they lack essential legal and governance elements that are indispensable when assessing future development pathways. This article sets out to address this shortcoming by explaining the interrelated but distinct features of law and governance and their downplayed roles in climate scenario research. We explore the extent to which legal and govsternance features are included in the current SSP and SPA development process and then suggest that the substance of legal and governance features in climate scenario frameworks could be enriched in four ways, by: 1) identifying the nuances of legal and policy objectives; 2) assessing the effectiveness of institutions and instruments; 3) integrating the assessment of the flexibility and adaptability of legal and governance systems into the projection of long-term pathways; and 4) responding to the urgent need to integrate climate and energy justice while still cautiously considering normative principles to be opportunities and challenges. We further argue that future climate scenario frameworks should consider law and governance at multiple scales and in distinct contexts to improve the usability, applicability, and reliability of the integrated pathways. Finally, in order to project future risks, this article suggests improvement regarding the processes, including inter- and transdisciplinary inclusion that can potentially be considered when furthering climate scenario frameworks that enhance understanding of the complex, uncertain future and the long-term consequences of certain decisions.

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KW - Governance

KW - Integrated assessment models

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KW - Shared climate policy assumptions (SPA)

KW - Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP)

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Clarifying and strengthening the role of law and governance in climate scenario frameworks

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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