Circular economy-induced global employment shifts in apparel value chains: Job reduction in apparel production activities, job growth in reuse and recycling activities

There is no evidence-based discussion on the intended and unintended global social impacts, such as changes in employment, of the European Union's (EU) transition towards the Circular Economy (CE). Consequently, its ethical implications are nebulous. Therefore, this paper assesses CE-induced global employment shifts using the example of the apparel value chains of apparel imported to the EU from the top five exporting countries: China, Bangladesh, India, Turkey and Cambodia. The discussion of the results is based on the ethical framework for global transformative change that applies justice considerations on sustainability transitions. This paper is the first sector-specific quantitative study on the employment effects of the EU transition on a global scale, including ethical dimensions of those effects, as far as we are aware. Overall, this paper contributes to the broader discussion of CE-induced social effects of sustainability transitions. Its results indicate that employment could significantly decrease in low- to upper-middle-income countries outside the EU, in particular in labour-intense apparel production. Employment could increase in less-labour intense downstream reuse and recycling activities in the EU and second-hand retail in- and outside the EU. From an ethical perspective, the benefits and disadvantages of the circular transition seem to be unevenly distributed, with the main adverse effects to be carried by non-EU stakeholders.