British business cycles, 1270–1870

Stephen Broadberry; Bruce M.S. Campbell; Alexander Klein; Mark Overton; Bas van Leeuwen

doi:10.1007/s11698-025-00306-w

British business cycles, 1270–1870

Stephen Broadberry^*, Bruce M.S. Campbell, Alexander Klein, Mark Overton, Bas van Leeuwen

^*Corresponding author for this work

OGKG - Economic and Social History

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Annual estimates of GDP constructed from the output side are used to analyse British business cycles between 1270 and 1870. After c.1670, the scale of recessions tended to diminish as the economy grew, diversified and became more resilient. Until c.1730, business cycles were driven largely by agricultural fluctuations, but shocks to industry and commerce became more important over time as the structure of the economy changed. A number of severe recessions can be identified, associated with harvest failures, disease outbreaks, wars and disruptions to commerce. Monetary and financial factors also played a role in some of these severe recessions.

Original language	English
Journal	Cliometrica
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s11698-025-00306-w
Publication status	E-pub ahead of print - 22 Apr 2025

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2025.

Funding

This paper arises from the project "Reconstructing the National Income of Britain and Holland, c.1270/1500 to 1850", funded by the Leverhulme Trust, Reference Number F/00215AR. It is also part of the Collaborative Project HI-POD supported by the European Commission's 7th Framework Programme for Research, Contract Number SSH7-CT-2008-225342.

Funders	Funder number
Leverhulme Trust	F/00215AR
Leverhulme Trust	SSH7-CT-2008-225342
European Commission's 7th Framework Programme for Research

Keywords

Britain
Business cycles
Long run
Recessions

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10.1007/s11698-025-00306-wLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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AU - Overton, Mark

AU - van Leeuwen, Bas

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AB - Annual estimates of GDP constructed from the output side are used to analyse British business cycles between 1270 and 1870. After c.1670, the scale of recessions tended to diminish as the economy grew, diversified and became more resilient. Until c.1730, business cycles were driven largely by agricultural fluctuations, but shocks to industry and commerce became more important over time as the structure of the economy changed. A number of severe recessions can be identified, associated with harvest failures, disease outbreaks, wars and disruptions to commerce. Monetary and financial factors also played a role in some of these severe recessions.

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KW - Recessions

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JO - Cliometrica

JF - Cliometrica

ER -

British business cycles, 1270–1870

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

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