TY - JOUR
T1 - Assessing climate model projections: State of the art and philosophical reflections
AU - Katzav, J.
AU - Dijkstra, H.A.
AU - de Laat, A.T.J.
PY - 2012
Y1 - 2012
N2 - The present paper draws on climate science and the philosophy of science in order to evaluate climatemodel-based approaches to assessing climate projections. We analyze the difficulties that arise in such
assessment and outline criteria of adequacy for approaches to it. In addition, we offer a critical overview
of the approaches used in the IPCC working group one fourth report, including the confidence building,
Bayesian and likelihood approaches. Finally, we consider approaches that do not feature in the IPCC
reports, including three approaches drawn from the philosophy of science. We find that all available
approaches face substantial challenges, with IPCC approaches having as a primary source of difficulty
their goal of providing probabilistic assessments.
AB - The present paper draws on climate science and the philosophy of science in order to evaluate climatemodel-based approaches to assessing climate projections. We analyze the difficulties that arise in such
assessment and outline criteria of adequacy for approaches to it. In addition, we offer a critical overview
of the approaches used in the IPCC working group one fourth report, including the confidence building,
Bayesian and likelihood approaches. Finally, we consider approaches that do not feature in the IPCC
reports, including three approaches drawn from the philosophy of science. We find that all available
approaches face substantial challenges, with IPCC approaches having as a primary source of difficulty
their goal of providing probabilistic assessments.
U2 - 10.1016/j.shpsb.2012.07.002
DO - 10.1016/j.shpsb.2012.07.002
M3 - Article
SN - 1355-2198
VL - 43
SP - 258
EP - 276
JO - Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics
JF - Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics
IS - 4
ER -
