An observational method for determining daily and regional photovoltaic solar energy statistics

Benjamin P.M. Laevens; Olav ten Bosch; Frank P. Pijpers; Wilfried G.J.H.M. van Sark

doi:10.1016/j.solener.2021.08.077

An observational method for determining daily and regional photovoltaic solar energy statistics

Benjamin P.M. Laevens, Olav ten Bosch, Frank P. Pijpers, Wilfried G.J.H.M. van Sark

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

This paper presents a classical estimation problem for calculating the energy generated by photovoltaic solar energy systems, on a daily, annual, regional and national basis. Our methodology relies on two data sources: PVOutput, an online portal with solar energy production measurements, and modelled irradiance data available for large parts of Africa and Europe, from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Combining these, we obtain probability functions of observing energy production, given the irradiation. These are applied to a PV systems database, using Monte Carlo sampling, allowing daily and annual solar energy production to be calculated. These are, in turn, used to calculate solar energy production per municipality. As a case study, we apply this methodology to one country in particular, namely the Netherlands. By examining the variation in our estimates as a result of taking different subsets of PVOutput systems with certain specifications such as azimuth, tilt and inverter loading ratio, we obtain specific annual energy yields in the range of 877-946kWh/kWp and 838-899kWh/kWp for 2016 and 2017 respectively. The current method used at Statistics Netherlands assumes this to be 875kWh/kWp, irrespective of irradiation, meaning the yields were underestimated in 2016 and overestimated in 2017. In the case of the Netherlands, this research demonstrates that an irradiation based measure of solar energy generation is necessary. More generally, this research shows that different types of open data sources may be combined to develop models that calculate the energy production of PV system populations.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	12-26
Number of pages	15
Journal	Solar Energy
Volume	228
Early online date	23 Sept 2021
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2021.08.077
Publication status	Published - 1 Nov 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We thank Alex Priem, Dick Windmeijer, Jurriën Vroom, Reinoud Segers, Anne Miek Kremer, André Meurink, Otto Swertz, Lyana Curier, Sofie De Broe, Michael Maseda and Nicolas Martin for their help and discussions. The authors also wish to thank colleagues at other European statistical offices which provided information on the calculation of the solar production in their respective countries. W.G.J.H.M. van Sark acknowledges financial support from the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy through Topsector Energy funding for the TKI-Urban Energy project PV Observatory. Finally, B.P.M. Laevens thanks his colleagues at the ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy for their support.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 International Solar Energy Society

Keywords

PV Systems
Citizen science
Representativeness

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.solener.2021.08.077

1-s2.0-S0038092X21007416-mainFinal published version, 7.1 MBLicence: Taverne

Cite this

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title = "An observational method for determining daily and regional photovoltaic solar energy statistics",

abstract = "This paper presents a classical estimation problem for calculating the energy generated by photovoltaic solar energy systems, on a daily, annual, regional and national basis. Our methodology relies on two data sources: PVOutput, an online portal with solar energy production measurements, and modelled irradiance data available for large parts of Africa and Europe, from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Combining these, we obtain probability functions of observing energy production, given the irradiation. These are applied to a PV systems database, using Monte Carlo sampling, allowing daily and annual solar energy production to be calculated. These are, in turn, used to calculate solar energy production per municipality. As a case study, we apply this methodology to one country in particular, namely the Netherlands. By examining the variation in our estimates as a result of taking different subsets of PVOutput systems with certain specifications such as azimuth, tilt and inverter loading ratio, we obtain specific annual energy yields in the range of 877-946kWh/kWp and 838-899kWh/kWp for 2016 and 2017 respectively. The current method used at Statistics Netherlands assumes this to be 875kWh/kWp, irrespective of irradiation, meaning the yields were underestimated in 2016 and overestimated in 2017. In the case of the Netherlands, this research demonstrates that an irradiation based measure of solar energy generation is necessary. More generally, this research shows that different types of open data sources may be combined to develop models that calculate the energy production of PV system populations.",

keywords = "PV Systems, Citizen science, Representativeness",

author = "Laevens, {Benjamin P.M.} and {ten Bosch}, Olav and Pijpers, {Frank P.} and {van Sark}, {Wilfried G.J.H.M.}",

note = "Funding Information: We thank Alex Priem, Dick Windmeijer, Jurri{\"e}n Vroom, Reinoud Segers, Anne Miek Kremer, Andr{\'e} Meurink, Otto Swertz, Lyana Curier, Sofie De Broe, Michael Maseda and Nicolas Martin for their help and discussions. The authors also wish to thank colleagues at other European statistical offices which provided information on the calculation of the solar production in their respective countries. W.G.J.H.M. van Sark acknowledges financial support from the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy through Topsector Energy funding for the TKI-Urban Energy project PV Observatory. Finally, B.P.M. Laevens thanks his colleagues at the ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy for their support. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 International Solar Energy Society",

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doi = "10.1016/j.solener.2021.08.077",

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AU - ten Bosch, Olav

AU - Pijpers, Frank P.

AU - van Sark, Wilfried G.J.H.M.

N1 - Funding Information: We thank Alex Priem, Dick Windmeijer, Jurriën Vroom, Reinoud Segers, Anne Miek Kremer, André Meurink, Otto Swertz, Lyana Curier, Sofie De Broe, Michael Maseda and Nicolas Martin for their help and discussions. The authors also wish to thank colleagues at other European statistical offices which provided information on the calculation of the solar production in their respective countries. W.G.J.H.M. van Sark acknowledges financial support from the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy through Topsector Energy funding for the TKI-Urban Energy project PV Observatory. Finally, B.P.M. Laevens thanks his colleagues at the ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy for their support. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 International Solar Energy Society

PY - 2021/11/1

Y1 - 2021/11/1

N2 - This paper presents a classical estimation problem for calculating the energy generated by photovoltaic solar energy systems, on a daily, annual, regional and national basis. Our methodology relies on two data sources: PVOutput, an online portal with solar energy production measurements, and modelled irradiance data available for large parts of Africa and Europe, from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Combining these, we obtain probability functions of observing energy production, given the irradiation. These are applied to a PV systems database, using Monte Carlo sampling, allowing daily and annual solar energy production to be calculated. These are, in turn, used to calculate solar energy production per municipality. As a case study, we apply this methodology to one country in particular, namely the Netherlands. By examining the variation in our estimates as a result of taking different subsets of PVOutput systems with certain specifications such as azimuth, tilt and inverter loading ratio, we obtain specific annual energy yields in the range of 877-946kWh/kWp and 838-899kWh/kWp for 2016 and 2017 respectively. The current method used at Statistics Netherlands assumes this to be 875kWh/kWp, irrespective of irradiation, meaning the yields were underestimated in 2016 and overestimated in 2017. In the case of the Netherlands, this research demonstrates that an irradiation based measure of solar energy generation is necessary. More generally, this research shows that different types of open data sources may be combined to develop models that calculate the energy production of PV system populations.

AB - This paper presents a classical estimation problem for calculating the energy generated by photovoltaic solar energy systems, on a daily, annual, regional and national basis. Our methodology relies on two data sources: PVOutput, an online portal with solar energy production measurements, and modelled irradiance data available for large parts of Africa and Europe, from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Combining these, we obtain probability functions of observing energy production, given the irradiation. These are applied to a PV systems database, using Monte Carlo sampling, allowing daily and annual solar energy production to be calculated. These are, in turn, used to calculate solar energy production per municipality. As a case study, we apply this methodology to one country in particular, namely the Netherlands. By examining the variation in our estimates as a result of taking different subsets of PVOutput systems with certain specifications such as azimuth, tilt and inverter loading ratio, we obtain specific annual energy yields in the range of 877-946kWh/kWp and 838-899kWh/kWp for 2016 and 2017 respectively. The current method used at Statistics Netherlands assumes this to be 875kWh/kWp, irrespective of irradiation, meaning the yields were underestimated in 2016 and overestimated in 2017. In the case of the Netherlands, this research demonstrates that an irradiation based measure of solar energy generation is necessary. More generally, this research shows that different types of open data sources may be combined to develop models that calculate the energy production of PV system populations.

KW - PV Systems

KW - Citizen science

KW - Representativeness

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U2 - 10.1016/j.solener.2021.08.077

DO - 10.1016/j.solener.2021.08.077

M3 - Article

SN - 0038-092X

VL - 228

SP - 12

EP - 26

JO - Solar Energy

JF - Solar Energy

ER -

An observational method for determining daily and regional photovoltaic solar energy statistics

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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