An empirical investigation into the drivers of the international demand for combat aircraft

This paper presents the findings of an empirical investigation into the drivers of the international demand for manned fixed-wing combat aircraft over the post-Cold War period, using a cross-checked dataset. We test six hypotheses based on determinants that have previously been identified as statistically significant in the extant literature. Using three linked specifications -order placement (binary logistic regression), ordered airpower and fleet airpower (Generalized Linear Model)- we find that the presence of a domestic combat aircraft industry is the most consistent and substantively powerful determinant. The analysis further demonstrates a robust negative correlation between reliance on foreign-made aircraft and demand. While GDP per capita and military expenditure are statistically significant, their explanatory power is limited. Supplier-base diversity and the technological age of the fleet play more modest roles, with their effects depending on context. Overall, the results suggest the collective impact of all factors provide the most complete explanation of observed cross-national variation in combat aircraft demand.