An analysis on OpenMetBuoy-v2021 drifter in-situ data and Lagrangian trajectory simulations in the Agulhas Current System

The primary objective of this study is to perform a sensitivity analysis of Lagrangian trajectory models. Trajectory simulations have been compared to six OpenMetBuoy-v2021 drifter trajectories in the Agulhas Current System (Jan–Mar 2023). Three different Lagrangian trajectory simulations have been assessed: (1) two offline Lagrangian tracking tools, OpenDrift and Parcels, (2) three Eulerian ocean surface current products, HYCOM, Mercator and Globcurrent, and (3) the addition of wind and/or wave forcing parameterizations. The latter has also been evaluated by strong ocean current, high wind speed and Stokes drift regimes. Firstly, using the same time stepping scheme and linear interpolation methods, the different Lagrangian simulators OpenDrift and Parcels, performed identically. Secondly, the Globcurrent product showed the highest mean skill of the three ocean current products, although it underestimated the speed for strong ocean currents due to its spatial resolution. The HYCOM and Mercator model simulations showed, respectively, 40% and 15% lower skill than the Globcurrent simulations. Finally, the addition of the Stokes drift and a wind drift factor (WDF), improved the Lagrangian simulation performance in skill and speed, especially in high wind (>10 m/s) and/or Stokes drift regimes (>0.15 m/s). The optimal WDF for the OpenMetBuoy-v2021 is found to be 1.8% and 2.3% for simulations including and excluding Stokes drift forcing respectively. To further improve the incorporation of Stokes drift and direct wind drag on the trajectory simulations, a more physically based solution is advised as there are still numerous wind and wave related processes that remain unresolved, like wave–current interactions and vertical shear. To statistically strengthen the conclusions from this research, incorporating additional observed drifter trajectories would be highly favourable.