Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world

Niels J. de Winter; Julia Tindall; Andrew L. A. Johnson; Barbara Goudsmit-Harzevoort; Nina Wichern; Pim Kaskes; Philippe Claeys; Fynn Huygen; Sonja van Leeuwen; Brett Metcalfe; Pepijn Bakker; Stijn Goolaerts; Frank Wesselingh; Martin Ziegler

doi:10.1126/sciadv.adl6717

Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world

Niels J. de Winter
, Julia Tindall
, Andrew L. A. Johnson
, Barbara Goudsmit-Harzevoort
, Nina Wichern
, Pim Kaskes
, Philippe Claeys
, Fynn Huygen
, Sonja van Leeuwen
, Brett Metcalfe
, Pepijn Bakker
, Stijn Goolaerts
, Frank Wesselingh
, Martin Ziegler

University of Leeds
University of Derby
University of Munster
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Universite Libre de Bruxelles
Utrecht University
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Wageningen University & Research
Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe’s future.

Original language	English
Article number	eadl6717
Number of pages	10
Journal	Science advances
Volume	10
Issue number	20
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl6717
Publication status	Published - 15 May 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 the Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. no claim to original U.S. Government Works. distributed under a creative commons Attribution license 4.0 (cc BY).

Funding

This research would not have been possible without the dedicated laboratory assistance from A. van Dijk, D. Eefting, I. Kocken, and I. M\u00FCller in the Utrecht University clumped isotope laboratory. We would like to thank L. Bik (UU), B. Lippens (VUB), and B. Lacet (VU Amsterdam) for their help with sample preparation and M. Zeilmans (UU) for assistance with high-resolution color scans of the shell specimens. We thank T. Bouten (UU) for help with the SEM analyses, M. Hamer (UU) for assistance with EBSD, J. Trabucho Alexandre (UU) and A. van Leeuwen (UU) for assistance with XRD analyses, A. Niemeyer (UU) for help with cathodoluminescence microscopy, and R. Tagle (Bruker Nano GmbH), S. Goderis, and L. Deriemaker (VUB) for their assistance in the AMGC-V UB XRF laboratory. N.J.d.W. thanks L. de Gier (UU), J. Franke (UU), and B. Verhage (UU) for their assistance with sampling, diagenetic screening, and laboratory analysis. This manuscript benefitted from discussions with P. Scussolini (VU Amsterdam). S.G. is grateful to V. Schelfhout, F. Aerts, M. Reyns, R. Sieckelink, and N. Ouifak of \u201CMobiliteit en Openbare Werken (MOW)\u201D for granting access to the Verrebroekdok (1999\u20132000), Deurganckdok (2001\u20132002), and Deurganckdoksluis (2012\u20132014) construction sites, allowing the collection of the study material. This work was funded through a Marie Curie Individual Fellowship (grant no. H2020-MSCA- IF- 2018\u2014 UNBIAS, 843011) and Flemish Research Council (FWO) postdoctoral fellowship (grant no. 12ZB220N), both awarded to N.J.d.W. B.G.-H . is supported by an UU-NI OZ collaboration grant. A.L.A.J. is supported by a grant from the Leverhulme Trust (RPG-2021- 090). P.K. was supported by the FWO PhD fellowship 11E6621N. P.C. thanks the VUB Strategic Research Program for support, as well as the FWO\u2014Hercules Program for financing the \u03BCXRF instrument at AMGC.the FWO\u2014hercules Program for financing the \u03BCXRF instrument at AMGc. Acknowledgments: this research would not have been possible without the dedicated laboratory assistance from A. van dijk, d. eefting, i. Kocken, and i. M\u00FCller in the Utrecht University clumped isotope laboratory. We would like to thank l. Bik (UU), B. lippens (vUB), and B. lacet (vU Amsterdam) for their help with sample preparation and M. Zeilmans (UU) for assistance with high-resolution color scans of the shell specimens. We thank t. Bouten (UU) for help with the SeM analyses, M. hamer (UU) for assistance with eBSd, J. trabucho Alexandre (UU) and A. van leeuwen (UU) for assistance with XRd analyses, A. niemeyer (UU) for help with cathodoluminescence microscopy, and R. tagle (Bruker nano Gmbh), S. Goderis, and l. deriemaker (vUB) for their assistance in the AMGc-vUB XRF laboratory. n.J.d.W. thanks l. de Gier (UU), J. Franke (UU), and B. verhage (UU) for their assistance with sampling, diagenetic screening, and laboratory analysis. this manuscript benefitted from discussions with P. Scussolini (vU Amsterdam). S.G. is grateful to v. Schelfhout, F. Aerts, M. Reyns, R. Sieckelink, and n. Ouifak of \u201CMobiliteit en Openbare Werken (MOW)\u201Dfor granting access to the verrebroekdok (1999\u20132000), deurganckdok (2001\u20132002), and deurganckdoksluis (2012\u20132014) construction sites, allowing the collection of the study material. Funding: this work was funded through a Marie curie individual Fellowship (grant no. h2020-MScA-iF-2018\u2014UnBiAS, 843011) and Flemish Research council (FWO) postdoctoral fellowship (grant no. 12ZB220n), both awarded to n.J.d.W. B.G.-h. is supported by an UU-niOZ collaboration grant. A.l.A.J. is supported by a grant from the leverhulme trust (RPG-2021-090). P.K. was supported by the FWO Phd fellowship 11e6621n. P.c. thanks the vUB Strategic Research Program for support, as well as the FWO\u2014hercules Program for financing the \u03BCXRF instrument at AMGc. Author contributions: Below is an overview of author contributions according to the credit framework: this study was conceptualized by n.J.d.W., P.c., J.t., F.W., and M.Z. data curation was done by n.J.d.W., F.h., and P.c. Formal analysis was carried out by n.J.d.W., B.M., and S.v.l. Funding for the project was acquired by n.J.d.W., P.c., and M.Z. investigation and experimental work were done by n.J.d.W., B.G.-h., n.W., P.K., F.h., F.W., and B.M. n.J.d.W., J.t., F.W., P.c., and M.Z. were responsible for the development of the methodology. the project was managed by n.J.d.W. under the supervision of P.c. and M.Z. Resources were provided by S.G., F.W., and P.c. development of software for formal analysis was by n.J.d.W., J.t., and S.v.l. n.J.d.W., A.l.A.J., S.G., P.c., and M.Z. supervised the project. validation of the reproducibility of the results was by n.J.d.W., J.t., B.G.-h., P.K., F.h., S.v.l., B.M., S.G., F.W., P.c., and M.Z. visualization of the results was initiated by n.J.d.W., n.W., B.M., S.G., B.G.-h., A.l.A.J., and J.t. the original draft was written by n.J.d.W., P.B., S.G., and J.t. All authors contributed to reviewing and editing subsequent versions of the manuscript. Competing interests: the authors declare that they have no competing interests. Data and materials availability: All data needed to evaluate the conclusions in the paper are present in the paper and/or the Supplementary Materials. All data on which this study is based are made available through the open-access database Zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8378900.

Funders	Funder number
Flemish Research Council
Marie curie individual Fellowship
Advanced Manufacturing Growth Centre
Flemish Research council
A. van Leeuwen	H2020-MSCA
Leverhulme Trust	11E6621N, RPG-2021-090
UNBIAS	843011
Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek	12ZB220n, 12ZB220N

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action
SDG 14 Life Below Water

Keywords

Aragonitic bivalve shells
Arctic amplification
Atmospheric circulation
Marine heatwaves
North-sea
Pliocene
Pliomip2 simulations
Sea-surface temperature
Summer drought
Wadden sea

Access to Document

10.1126/sciadv.adl6717Licence: CC BY

sciadv.adl6717Final published version, 3 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world",

abstract = "Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe{\textquoteright}s future.",

keywords = "Aragonitic bivalve shells, Arctic amplification, Atmospheric circulation, Marine heatwaves, North-sea, Pliocene, Pliomip2 simulations, Sea-surface temperature, Summer drought, Wadden sea",

author = "\{de Winter\}, \{Niels J.\} and Julia Tindall and Johnson, \{Andrew L. A.\} and Barbara Goudsmit-Harzevoort and Nina Wichern and Pim Kaskes and Philippe Claeys and Fynn Huygen and \{van Leeuwen\}, Sonja and Brett Metcalfe and Pepijn Bakker and Stijn Goolaerts and Frank Wesselingh and Martin Ziegler",

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AU - Wichern, Nina

AU - Kaskes, Pim

AU - Claeys, Philippe

AU - Huygen, Fynn

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AU - Metcalfe, Brett

AU - Bakker, Pepijn

AU - Goolaerts, Stijn

AU - Wesselingh, Frank

AU - Ziegler, Martin

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Y1 - 2024/5/15

N2 - Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe’s future.

AB - Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe’s future.

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KW - Summer drought

KW - Wadden sea

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Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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