TY - JOUR
T1 - Aligning integrated assessment modelling with socio-technical transition insights
T2 - An application to low-carbon energy scenario analysis in Europe
AU - van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E.
AU - Hof, Andries F.
AU - Carrara, Samuel
AU - Geels, Frank W.
AU - Nilsson, Måns
AU - Rogge, Karoline
AU - Turnheim, Bruno
AU - van Vuuren, Detlef P.
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - In this study, we present and apply an interdisciplinary approach that systematically draws qualitative insights from socio-technical transition studies to develop new quantitative scenarios for integrated assessment modelling. We identify the transition narrative as an analytical bridge between socio-technical transition studies and integrated assessment modelling. Conceptual interaction is realised through the development of two contrasting transition narratives on the role of actors in meeting the European Unions' 80% greenhouse gas emission reduction objective for 2050. The first transition narrative outlines how large-scale innovation trajectories are driven by incumbent actors, whereas the second transition narrative assumes more ‘alternative’ strategies by new entrants with strong opposition to large-scale technologies. We use the multi-level perspective to draw out plausible storylines on actor positioning and momentum of change for several technological and social niche-innovations in both transition narratives. These storylines are then translated into quantitative scenarios for integrated assessment modelling. Although both developed transition pathways align with the European Union's low-carbon objective for 2050, we find that each pathway depicts a substantial departure from systems that are known to date. Future research could focus on further systematic (joint) development of operational links between the two analytical approaches, as well as work on improved representation of demand-oriented solutions in techno-economic modelling.
AB - In this study, we present and apply an interdisciplinary approach that systematically draws qualitative insights from socio-technical transition studies to develop new quantitative scenarios for integrated assessment modelling. We identify the transition narrative as an analytical bridge between socio-technical transition studies and integrated assessment modelling. Conceptual interaction is realised through the development of two contrasting transition narratives on the role of actors in meeting the European Unions' 80% greenhouse gas emission reduction objective for 2050. The first transition narrative outlines how large-scale innovation trajectories are driven by incumbent actors, whereas the second transition narrative assumes more ‘alternative’ strategies by new entrants with strong opposition to large-scale technologies. We use the multi-level perspective to draw out plausible storylines on actor positioning and momentum of change for several technological and social niche-innovations in both transition narratives. These storylines are then translated into quantitative scenarios for integrated assessment modelling. Although both developed transition pathways align with the European Union's low-carbon objective for 2050, we find that each pathway depicts a substantial departure from systems that are known to date. Future research could focus on further systematic (joint) development of operational links between the two analytical approaches, as well as work on improved representation of demand-oriented solutions in techno-economic modelling.
KW - IAM
KW - Integrated assessment
KW - Interdisciplinary
KW - MLP
KW - Socio-technical transitions
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85077652445&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.10.024
DO - 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.10.024
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85077652445
SN - 0040-1625
VL - 151
JO - Technological Forecasting and Social Change
JF - Technological Forecasting and Social Change
M1 - 119177
ER -