AIRCC-Clim: A user-friendly tool for generating regional probabilistic climate change scenarios and risk measures

Francisco Estrada*, Oscar Calderón-Bustamante, Wouter Botzen, Julián A. Velasco, Richard S.J. Tol

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Complex physical models are the most advanced tools available for producing realistic simulations of the climate system. However, such levels of realism imply high computational cost and restrictions on their use for policymaking and risk assessment. Two central characteristics of climate change are uncertainty and that it is a dynamic problem in which international actions can significantly alter climate projections and information needs, including partial and full compliance of global climate goals. Here we present AIRCC-Clim, a simple climate model emulator that produces regional probabilistic climate change projections of monthly and annual temperature and precipitation, as well as risk measures, based both on standard and user-defined emissions scenarios for six greenhouse gases. AIRCC-Clim emulates 37 atm-ocean coupled general circulation models with low computational and technical requirements for the user. This standalone, user-friendly software is designed for a variety of applications including impact assessments, climate policy evaluation and integrated assessment modelling.

Original languageEnglish
Article number105528
Pages (from-to)1-15
JournalEnvironmental Modelling and Software
Volume157
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2022

Keywords

  • Climate change scenarios
  • Climate model emulator
  • Impact
  • Stochastic simulation
  • Vulnerability and adaptation assessment

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