AIRCC-Clim: A user-friendly tool for generating regional probabilistic climate change scenarios and risk measures

Francisco Estrada; Oscar Calderón-Bustamante; Wouter Botzen; Julián A. Velasco; Richard S.J. Tol

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105528

AIRCC-Clim: A user-friendly tool for generating regional probabilistic climate change scenarios and risk measures

Francisco Estrada^*, Oscar Calderón-Bustamante, Wouter Botzen, Julián A. Velasco, Richard S.J. Tol

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Complex physical models are the most advanced tools available for producing realistic simulations of the climate system. However, such levels of realism imply high computational cost and restrictions on their use for policymaking and risk assessment. Two central characteristics of climate change are uncertainty and that it is a dynamic problem in which international actions can significantly alter climate projections and information needs, including partial and full compliance of global climate goals. Here we present AIRCC-Clim, a simple climate model emulator that produces regional probabilistic climate change projections of monthly and annual temperature and precipitation, as well as risk measures, based both on standard and user-defined emissions scenarios for six greenhouse gases. AIRCC-Clim emulates 37 atm-ocean coupled general circulation models with low computational and technical requirements for the user. This standalone, user-friendly software is designed for a variety of applications including impact assessments, climate policy evaluation and integrated assessment modelling.

Original language	English
Article number	105528
Pages (from-to)	1-15
Journal	Environmental Modelling and Software
Volume	157
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105528
Publication status	Published - Nov 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Francisco Estrada acknowledges financial support from DGAPA- UNAM through the projects PAPIIT IN110718 and IN111221 and from PINCC-UNAM.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors

Funding

Francisco Estrada acknowledges financial support from DGAPA- UNAM through the projects PAPIIT IN110718 and IN111221 and from PINCC-UNAM.

Keywords

Climate change scenarios
Climate model emulator
Impact
Stochastic simulation
Vulnerability and adaptation assessment

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105528Licence: CC BY

1-s2.0-S1364815222002286-mainFinal published version, 12.1 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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abstract = "Complex physical models are the most advanced tools available for producing realistic simulations of the climate system. However, such levels of realism imply high computational cost and restrictions on their use for policymaking and risk assessment. Two central characteristics of climate change are uncertainty and that it is a dynamic problem in which international actions can significantly alter climate projections and information needs, including partial and full compliance of global climate goals. Here we present AIRCC-Clim, a simple climate model emulator that produces regional probabilistic climate change projections of monthly and annual temperature and precipitation, as well as risk measures, based both on standard and user-defined emissions scenarios for six greenhouse gases. AIRCC-Clim emulates 37 atm-ocean coupled general circulation models with low computational and technical requirements for the user. This standalone, user-friendly software is designed for a variety of applications including impact assessments, climate policy evaluation and integrated assessment modelling.",

keywords = "Climate change scenarios, Climate model emulator, Impact, Stochastic simulation, Vulnerability and adaptation assessment",

author = "Francisco Estrada and Oscar Calder{\'o}n-Bustamante and Wouter Botzen and Velasco, {Juli{\'a}n A.} and Tol, {Richard S.J.}",

note = "Funding Information: Francisco Estrada acknowledges financial support from DGAPA- UNAM through the projects PAPIIT IN110718 and IN111221 and from PINCC-UNAM. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Authors",

year = "2022",

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doi = "10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105528",

language = "English",

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AU - Botzen, Wouter

AU - Velasco, Julián A.

AU - Tol, Richard S.J.

N1 - Funding Information: Francisco Estrada acknowledges financial support from DGAPA- UNAM through the projects PAPIIT IN110718 and IN111221 and from PINCC-UNAM. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors

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KW - Impact

KW - Stochastic simulation

KW - Vulnerability and adaptation assessment

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ER -

AIRCC-Clim: A user-friendly tool for generating regional probabilistic climate change scenarios and risk measures

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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