Abstract
The effects of climate change are expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of floods, intense rainfall, droughts, and heat waves. Such projections reveal the need for policy makers, urban planners and water managers to plan ahead and ensure that management strategies will be effective in coping with extreme weather events now and in the future. While adapting to such changes, urban dynamics, like building and infrastructure renewal, can represent an opportunity to reduce investment costs. As such, an emerging method termed Adaptation Tipping Point - Opportunity (ATP-O) recognizes the uncertainties associated with climate change projections and uses the opportunities arising from anticipated urban (re)developments to introduce adaptation measures. The objective of this research was to apply the ATP-O method to the city of Dordrecht in the Netherlands, as a case study of assessing its potential to increase the degree of resilience to climate change and to optimize the investments in flood risk management and urban development.
In Dordrecht, the current climate change adaptation strategy involves disconnecting 40% of the publicly-owned buildings and paved areas (such as streets and parking lots) from the sewer system. To determine how much longer this strategy would be effective in meeting policy objectives, we first performed a tipping point analysis of the system. The results show that the current adaptation strategy is effective in increasing the system’s resilience to climate change in 70% of the districts, meaning that adaptation tipping points are pushed back in time. Opportunities to reduce adaptation investments costs were then identified by timing the moments for incremental adaptation with already planned building and infrastructure renewal activities. Despite a clear increase in resilience, the results of the tipping point analysis also revealed that 4 out of 17 (24%) of the districts would still fail to meet policy objectives with the current adaptation strategy in place. Therefore alternative adaptation strategies aiming at the use of the overland drainage system were developed and analyzed with a tipping point analysis. The results show that the alternative strategies would be effective in coping with the effects of climate change where the current strategy fails to do so. The ATP-O thus proved helpful in developing strategies that can increase a city’s resilience to climate change, as well as in recognizing opportunities to adapt at a lower cost.
This research stimulated discussion between stakeholders from the public and private spheres on performance objectives, policy development, investment strategies, and flood risk management and urban development practices. As a result, the New Build and Restructuring sub-program of the Dutch Delta Program has commissioned the collaborative network in Dordrecht to draft national-scale policy advice on the uptake of the ATP-O method to increase resilience to climate change.
In Dordrecht, the current climate change adaptation strategy involves disconnecting 40% of the publicly-owned buildings and paved areas (such as streets and parking lots) from the sewer system. To determine how much longer this strategy would be effective in meeting policy objectives, we first performed a tipping point analysis of the system. The results show that the current adaptation strategy is effective in increasing the system’s resilience to climate change in 70% of the districts, meaning that adaptation tipping points are pushed back in time. Opportunities to reduce adaptation investments costs were then identified by timing the moments for incremental adaptation with already planned building and infrastructure renewal activities. Despite a clear increase in resilience, the results of the tipping point analysis also revealed that 4 out of 17 (24%) of the districts would still fail to meet policy objectives with the current adaptation strategy in place. Therefore alternative adaptation strategies aiming at the use of the overland drainage system were developed and analyzed with a tipping point analysis. The results show that the alternative strategies would be effective in coping with the effects of climate change where the current strategy fails to do so. The ATP-O thus proved helpful in developing strategies that can increase a city’s resilience to climate change, as well as in recognizing opportunities to adapt at a lower cost.
This research stimulated discussion between stakeholders from the public and private spheres on performance objectives, policy development, investment strategies, and flood risk management and urban development practices. As a result, the New Build and Restructuring sub-program of the Dutch Delta Program has commissioned the collaborative network in Dordrecht to draft national-scale policy advice on the uptake of the ATP-O method to increase resilience to climate change.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | 1st European Climate Change Adaptation Conference (ECCA) |
| Place of Publication | Hamburg, Germany |
| Publication status | Published - 18 Mar 2013 |
