Adaptation of thermal power plants: The (ir)relevance of climate (change) information

Christian W.J. Bogmans; Gerard P.J. Dijkema; Michelle T.H. van Vliet

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.012

Adaptation of thermal power plants: The (ir)relevance of climate (change) information

Christian W.J. Bogmans^*, Gerard P.J. Dijkema, Michelle T.H. van Vliet

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

When does climate change information lead to adaptation? We analyze thermal power plant adaptation by means of investing in water-saving (cooling) technology to prevent a decrease in plant efficiency and load reduction. A comprehensive power plant investment model, forced with downscaled climate and hydrological projections, is then numerically solved to analyze the adaptation decisions of a selection of real power plants. We find that operators that base their decisions on current climatic conditions are likely to make identical choices and perform just as well as operators that are fully ‘informed’ about climate change. Where electricity supply is mainly generated by thermal power plants, heat waves, droughts and low river flow may impact electricity supply for decades to come.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1-18
Number of pages	18
Journal	Energy Economics
Volume	62
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.012
Publication status	Published - 1 Feb 2017
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Elsevier B.V.

Keywords

Adaptation
Climate change
Real options
Thermal power plants

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.012

Cite this

@article{b67294eb36b149778d8af2eab663b9aa,

title = "Adaptation of thermal power plants: The (ir)relevance of climate (change) information",

abstract = "When does climate change information lead to adaptation? We analyze thermal power plant adaptation by means of investing in water-saving (cooling) technology to prevent a decrease in plant efficiency and load reduction. A comprehensive power plant investment model, forced with downscaled climate and hydrological projections, is then numerically solved to analyze the adaptation decisions of a selection of real power plants. We find that operators that base their decisions on current climatic conditions are likely to make identical choices and perform just as well as operators that are fully {\textquoteleft}informed{\textquoteright} about climate change. Where electricity supply is mainly generated by thermal power plants, heat waves, droughts and low river flow may impact electricity supply for decades to come.",

keywords = "Adaptation, Climate change, Real options, Thermal power plants",

author = "Bogmans, {Christian W.J.} and Dijkema, {Gerard P.J.} and {van Vliet}, {Michelle T.H.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2016 Elsevier B.V.",

year = "2017",

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doi = "10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.012",

language = "English",

volume = "62",

pages = "1--18",

journal = "Energy Economics",

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T1 - Adaptation of thermal power plants

T2 - The (ir)relevance of climate (change) information

AU - Bogmans, Christian W.J.

AU - Dijkema, Gerard P.J.

AU - van Vliet, Michelle T.H.

PY - 2017/2/1

Y1 - 2017/2/1

N2 - When does climate change information lead to adaptation? We analyze thermal power plant adaptation by means of investing in water-saving (cooling) technology to prevent a decrease in plant efficiency and load reduction. A comprehensive power plant investment model, forced with downscaled climate and hydrological projections, is then numerically solved to analyze the adaptation decisions of a selection of real power plants. We find that operators that base their decisions on current climatic conditions are likely to make identical choices and perform just as well as operators that are fully ‘informed’ about climate change. Where electricity supply is mainly generated by thermal power plants, heat waves, droughts and low river flow may impact electricity supply for decades to come.

AB - When does climate change information lead to adaptation? We analyze thermal power plant adaptation by means of investing in water-saving (cooling) technology to prevent a decrease in plant efficiency and load reduction. A comprehensive power plant investment model, forced with downscaled climate and hydrological projections, is then numerically solved to analyze the adaptation decisions of a selection of real power plants. We find that operators that base their decisions on current climatic conditions are likely to make identical choices and perform just as well as operators that are fully ‘informed’ about climate change. Where electricity supply is mainly generated by thermal power plants, heat waves, droughts and low river flow may impact electricity supply for decades to come.

KW - Adaptation

KW - Climate change

KW - Real options

KW - Thermal power plants

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U2 - 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.012

DO - 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.012

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85007093180

SN - 0140-9883

VL - 62

SP - 1

EP - 18

JO - Energy Economics

JF - Energy Economics

ER -

Adaptation of thermal power plants: The (ir)relevance of climate (change) information

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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