Achieving net-zero emissions targets: An analysis of long-term scenarios using an integrated assessment model

Ioannis Dafnomilis; Michel den Elzen; Detlef P van Vuuren

doi:10.1111/nyas.14970

Achieving net-zero emissions targets: An analysis of long-term scenarios using an integrated assessment model

Ioannis Dafnomilis^*
, Michel den Elzen
, Detlef P van Vuuren

^*Corresponding author for this work

Netherlands Assessment Agency (PBL)

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

More than 100 countries have communicated or adopted new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and net-zero target pledges. We investigate the impact on global, national, sectoral, and individual greenhouse gas emissions projections under different scenarios based on the announced NDCs and net-zero pledges using the IMAGE integrated assessment model. Our results show that while the net-zero pledges, if implemented, could be an important step forward, they are still not enough to achieve the Paris Agreement goals of well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C by the end of the century. Still, our net-zero scenarios project significant all-sector decarbonization, in particular, electricity; however, certain sectors like industry and transport prove hard to completely abate.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	98-108
Number of pages	11
Journal	Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
Volume	1522
Issue number	1
Early online date	25 Feb 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14970
Publication status	Published - 1 Apr 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 New York Academy of Sciences.

Funding

This work was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Grant agreement no. 821471: ENGAGE; Grant agreement no. 821124: NAVIGATE). European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, Grant/Award Numbers: 821471-ENGAGE, 821124-NAVIGATE

Funders	Funder number
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
Horizon 2020	821124, 821471-ENGAGE

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

carbon neutrality
climate change
NDC
net zero
Paris agreement
Paris Agreement

Access to Document

10.1111/nyas.14970

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences - 2023 - Dafnomilis - Achieving net‐zero emissions targets An analysis ofFinal published version, 936 KBLicence: Taverne

Cite this

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Achieving net-zero emissions targets: An analysis of long-term scenarios using an integrated assessment model

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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