Abrupt Shifts in the Earth System at Moderate Warming

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Abstract

The gradual rise in greenhouse gas concentrations is projected to drive a mostly smooth increase in global temperature (Stocker et al., 2013). However, our planet Earth is suspected to have a range of ?tipping elements? with the characteristic that their gradual change will be punctuated by critical transitions on regional scales (Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012). That is, for relatively small changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, parts of the Earth System exhibit major changes. Well-known examples of such ?tipping elements? are: the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets, the Amazon rainforest, Arctic sea-ice, the Warm Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic, in particular its northward branch along the British Isles and the Norwegian continental shelf. One of the most concerning issues of human-induced increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations is the potential for rapid regional transitions in the climate system, associated with crossing a ?tipping point? where small changes have large impacts. Such nonlinear responses to relatively gradual atmospheric composition changes may have major implications for society and how it adapts?
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationWorld Scientific Encyclopedia of Climate Change
Subtitle of host publicationCase Studies of Climate Risk, Action, and Opportunity
EditorsJan W. Dash
PublisherWorld Scienctific
Chapter28
Pages259-262
Number of pages4
Volume2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021

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