A systematic framework for the assessment of sustainable hydropower potential in a river basin – The case of the upper Indus

Sanita Dhaubanjar; Arthur F. Lutz; David E.H.J. Gernaat; Santosh Nepal; Wouter Smolenaars; Saurav Pradhananga; Hester Biemans; Fulco Ludwig; Arun B. Shrestha; Walter W. Immerzeel

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147142

A systematic framework for the assessment of sustainable hydropower potential in a river basin – The case of the upper Indus

Sanita Dhaubanjar^*, Arthur F. Lutz, David E.H.J. Gernaat, Santosh Nepal, Wouter Smolenaars, Saurav Pradhananga, Hester Biemans, Fulco Ludwig, Arun B. Shrestha, Walter W. Immerzeel

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Siloed-approaches may fuel the misguided development of hydropower and subsequent target-setting under the sustainable development goals (SDGs). While hydropower development in the Indus basin is vital to ensure energy security (SDG7), it needs to be balanced with water use for fulfilling food (SDG2) and water (SDG6) security. Existing methods to estimate hydropower potential generally focus on: only one class of potential, a methodological advance for either of hydropower siting, sizing, or costing of one site, or the ranking of a portfolio of projects. A majority of them fall short in addressing sustainability. Hence, we develop a systematic framework for the basin-scale assessment of the sustainable hydropower potential by integrating considerations of the water-energy-food nexus, disaster risk, climate change, environmental protection, and socio-economic preferences. Considering the case of the upper Indus, the framework is developed by combining advances in literature, insights from local hydropower practitioners and over 30 datasets to represent real-life challenges to sustainable hydropower development, while distinguishing between small and large plants for two run-of-river plant configurations. The framework first addresses theoretical potential and successively constrains this further by stepwise inclusion of technical, economical, and sustainability criteria to obtain the sustainable exploitable hydropower potential. We conclude that sustainable hydropower potential in complex basins such as the Indus goes far beyond the hydrological boundary conditions. Our framework enables the careful inclusion of factors beyond the status-quo technological and economic criterions to guide policymakers in hydropower development decisions in the Indus and beyond. Future work will implement the framework to quantify the different hydropower potential classes and explore adaptation pathways to balance SDG7 with the other interlinked SDGs in the Indus.

Original language	English
Article number	147142
Pages (from-to)	1-18
Journal	Science of the Total Environment
Volume	786
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147142
Publication status	Published - 10 Sept 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This research conducted under the SustaIndus project has received funding from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research under WOTRO Joint Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) research program (Grant W 07.30318.002 ). This work was partially supported by Sustainable Development Investment Portfolio (SDIP), the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), Government of Australia, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and by core funds from ICIMOD contributed by the governments of Afghanistan, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Norway, Pakistan, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The views and interpretations in this publication are those of the authors and are not necessarily attributable to their organizations. We are grateful to stakeholders Waqar Ahmed Khan, Meherban Khan, Muhammad Darjat, Muhammad Ziaullah, Ali Mehdi, and especially Asim Rauf Khan, for sharing their insights on hydropower production in Pakistan and providing feedback on model parameterization to represent the ground-realities. Samaa Mufti is acknowledged for coordinating the stakeholder discussions. Tim J Grandjean provided editorial comments on earlier version of the paper.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Authors

Funding

This research conducted under the SustaIndus project has received funding from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research under WOTRO Joint Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) research program (Grant W 07.30318.002 ). This work was partially supported by Sustainable Development Investment Portfolio (SDIP), the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), Government of Australia, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and by core funds from ICIMOD contributed by the governments of Afghanistan, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Norway, Pakistan, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The views and interpretations in this publication are those of the authors and are not necessarily attributable to their organizations. We are grateful to stakeholders Waqar Ahmed Khan, Meherban Khan, Muhammad Darjat, Muhammad Ziaullah, Ali Mehdi, and especially Asim Rauf Khan, for sharing their insights on hydropower production in Pakistan and providing feedback on model parameterization to represent the ground-realities. Samaa Mufti is acknowledged for coordinating the stakeholder discussions. Tim J Grandjean provided editorial comments on earlier version of the paper.

Keywords

Hydropower development
Hydropower potential
Hydropower siting
Hydropower sizing
Sustainability
Sustainable development goals

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147142Licence: CC BY

1-s2.0-S0048969721022129-mainFinal published version, 4.27 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

Dhaubanjar, S., Lutz, A. F., Gernaat, D. E. H. J., Nepal, S., Smolenaars, W., Pradhananga, S., Biemans, H., Ludwig, F., Shrestha, A. B., & Immerzeel, W. W. (2021). A systematic framework for the assessment of sustainable hydropower potential in a river basin – The case of the upper Indus. Science of the Total Environment, 786, 1-18. Article 147142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147142

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note = "Funding Information: This research conducted under the SustaIndus project has received funding from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research under WOTRO Joint Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) research program (Grant W 07.30318.002 ). This work was partially supported by Sustainable Development Investment Portfolio (SDIP), the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), Government of Australia, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and by core funds from ICIMOD contributed by the governments of Afghanistan, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Norway, Pakistan, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The views and interpretations in this publication are those of the authors and are not necessarily attributable to their organizations. We are grateful to stakeholders Waqar Ahmed Khan, Meherban Khan, Muhammad Darjat, Muhammad Ziaullah, Ali Mehdi, and especially Asim Rauf Khan, for sharing their insights on hydropower production in Pakistan and providing feedback on model parameterization to represent the ground-realities. Samaa Mufti is acknowledged for coordinating the stakeholder discussions. Tim J Grandjean provided editorial comments on earlier version of the paper. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 The Authors",

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Dhaubanjar, S, Lutz, AF, Gernaat, DEHJ, Nepal, S, Smolenaars, W, Pradhananga, S, Biemans, H, Ludwig, F, Shrestha, AB & Immerzeel, WW 2021, 'A systematic framework for the assessment of sustainable hydropower potential in a river basin – The case of the upper Indus', Science of the Total Environment, vol. 786, 147142, pp. 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147142

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AU - Lutz, Arthur F.

AU - Gernaat, David E.H.J.

AU - Nepal, Santosh

AU - Smolenaars, Wouter

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AU - Biemans, Hester

AU - Ludwig, Fulco

AU - Shrestha, Arun B.

AU - Immerzeel, Walter W.

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Y1 - 2021/9/10

N2 - Siloed-approaches may fuel the misguided development of hydropower and subsequent target-setting under the sustainable development goals (SDGs). While hydropower development in the Indus basin is vital to ensure energy security (SDG7), it needs to be balanced with water use for fulfilling food (SDG2) and water (SDG6) security. Existing methods to estimate hydropower potential generally focus on: only one class of potential, a methodological advance for either of hydropower siting, sizing, or costing of one site, or the ranking of a portfolio of projects. A majority of them fall short in addressing sustainability. Hence, we develop a systematic framework for the basin-scale assessment of the sustainable hydropower potential by integrating considerations of the water-energy-food nexus, disaster risk, climate change, environmental protection, and socio-economic preferences. Considering the case of the upper Indus, the framework is developed by combining advances in literature, insights from local hydropower practitioners and over 30 datasets to represent real-life challenges to sustainable hydropower development, while distinguishing between small and large plants for two run-of-river plant configurations. The framework first addresses theoretical potential and successively constrains this further by stepwise inclusion of technical, economical, and sustainability criteria to obtain the sustainable exploitable hydropower potential. We conclude that sustainable hydropower potential in complex basins such as the Indus goes far beyond the hydrological boundary conditions. Our framework enables the careful inclusion of factors beyond the status-quo technological and economic criterions to guide policymakers in hydropower development decisions in the Indus and beyond. Future work will implement the framework to quantify the different hydropower potential classes and explore adaptation pathways to balance SDG7 with the other interlinked SDGs in the Indus.

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KW - Hydropower siting

KW - Hydropower sizing

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A systematic framework for the assessment of sustainable hydropower potential in a river basin – The case of the upper Indus

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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Cite this