A new regime and then what? Cracks and tensions in the socio-technical regime of the Swedish heat energy system

Abstract Since the 70s, Sweden has gradually replaced oil with renewables to provide energy for heating, and today the country uses the highest total amount of renewable energy for heating of all EU Member States. However, there are signs of new tensions in the heat-energy system, and of lock-in of less sustainable practices. Using the multi-level perspective (MLP), this paper assesses to what degree the sociotechnical regime in Sweden's heat-energy system is stable and locked-in, and whether there are emerging tensions. We identify three key characteristics of the regime – interconnectedness, complementarity and saturation – that together risk creating tensions and lock-in of less sustainable practices. We conclude that the heat regime is facing an unstable future, with several challenges of growing importance.