A new approach for modelling techno-economic performance of integrated energy systems on district scale for informed decision-making in a multi-stakeholder context

To better support informed decision-making around renewable heating strategies on local scale, a new methodology was developed for simulating integrated heating scenarios. This paper proposes, describes and demonstrates the modeling methodology with a focus on a variety of KPIs, allowing a more inclusive evaluation of technical options, systems and scenarios. Key KPIs include system costs, CO₂ emissions, mitigation costs and end-user costs and investments. Key function of the model is an in-depth cost analysis by a breakdown of costs among types of measures (home equipment, insulation, local equipment and infrastructure), cost components (investments, O&M, taxes, subsidies) and stakeholders (system, government, owner-occupiers, renters, real estate owners, grid operators and local entrepreneurs). The methodology was applied to a fictive Dutch neighbourhood according to the urban and building typology provided in the paper. The results of six scenarios show large variety in costs among scenarios with significantly higher costs than the reference scenario in all scenarios, with scenario ‘hybrid’ and ‘efficiency’ presenting the best potential of becoming cost-competitive with the reference scenario in 2030. The method is suitable for evaluating a wide diversity of settings and contexts.