TY - JOUR
T1 - A model of lineage-1 and lineage-2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of East Africa
AU - Mariner, J.C.
AU - McDermott, J.
AU - Heesterbeek, J.A.P.
AU - Catley, A.
AU - Roeder, P.
PY - 2005
Y1 - 2005
N2 - The development of a stochastic, state-transition model of rinderpest transmission dynamics is described using parameter estimates obtained from both laboratory and participatory research. Using serological data, the basic reproduction numbers for lineage-1 rinderpest virus in southern Sudan and for lineage-2 rinderpest virus in Somali livestock were estimated as 4.4 and between 1.2 and 1.9, respectively. The model predictions for the inter-epidemic period in Sudan and Somalia (1.2 and 4.2 years, respectively) were in agreement with analysis of livestock-owner reports (1–2 years and 5 years, respectively).
AB - The development of a stochastic, state-transition model of rinderpest transmission dynamics is described using parameter estimates obtained from both laboratory and participatory research. Using serological data, the basic reproduction numbers for lineage-1 rinderpest virus in southern Sudan and for lineage-2 rinderpest virus in Somali livestock were estimated as 4.4 and between 1.2 and 1.9, respectively. The model predictions for the inter-epidemic period in Sudan and Somalia (1.2 and 4.2 years, respectively) were in agreement with analysis of livestock-owner reports (1–2 years and 5 years, respectively).
KW - Diergeneeskunde (DGNK)
U2 - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2005.02.001
DO - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2005.02.001
M3 - Article
SN - 0167-5877
VL - 69
SP - 245
EP - 263
JO - Preventive Veterinary Medicine
JF - Preventive Veterinary Medicine
IS - 3-4
ER -