A Model of Grain Production and Trade for the Roman World: Simulating Roman Economies: Theories, Methods, and Computational Models

Agriculture was the dominant sector of the Roman economy, with grain being the main source of calories for most of the population. In order to sustain growing urbanization and its armies, Rome maintained a stable grain supply in two principal ways: an impressive trade network, and agricultural intensification through rainfed and irrigated cultivation. Using a purpose-built Grain Production and Trade Model of the Roman World, we demonstrate how formal modelling approaches can be applied to examine the interplay between modes of agricultural production, interannual climate variability, and trade networks. This chapter argues that stable irrigated agricultural output, regional grain surpluses, and effective grain trade within and between provinces facilitated the empire?s resilience to interannual climate variability and were crucial for facilitating the high levels of urbanization during the early imperial period.