A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd

Prem P. Chapagain; J. S. Van kessel; J. S. Karns; D. R. Wolfgang; E. Hovingh; K. A. Nelen; Y. H. Schukken; Y. T. Grohn

doi:10.1017/S0950268807008400

A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd

Prem P. Chapagain^*
, J. S. Van kessel
, J. S. Karns
, D. R. Wolfgang
, E. Hovingh
, K. A. Nelen
, Y. H. Schukken
, Y. T. Grohn

^*Corresponding author for this work

Environmental Sciences

Cornell University
Florida International University
United States Department of Agriculture
Pennsylvania State University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for 1 year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	263-272
Number of pages	10
Journal	Epidemiology and Infection
Volume	136
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268807008400
Publication status	Published - 1 Feb 2008

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title = "A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd",

abstract = "We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for 1 year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.",

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AU - Chapagain, Prem P.

AU - Van kessel, J. S.

AU - Karns, J. S.

AU - Wolfgang, D. R.

AU - Hovingh, E.

AU - Nelen, K. A.

AU - Schukken, Y. H.

AU - Grohn, Y. T.

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AB - We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for 1 year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.

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A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd

Abstract

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