Abstract
One of the approaches to constrain uncertainty in climate models is the identification of emergent constraints. These are physically explainable empirical relationships between a particular simulated characteristic of the current climate and future climate change from an ensemble of climate models, which can be exploited using current observations. In this paper, we develop a theory to understand the appearance of such emergent constraints. Based on this theory, we also propose a classification for emergent constraints, and applications are shown for several idealized climate models.
.| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 999-1012 |
| Number of pages | 14 |
| Journal | Earth System Dynamics |
| Volume | 9 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 15 Aug 2018 |
Funding
Acknowledgements. We thank Frank Lunkeit for his help with the PlaSim simulations and Alexis Tantet is thanked for useful discussions. The authors also thank Valerio Lucarini and an anonymous reviewer whose suggestions helped improve and clarify the manuscript. Both authors acknowledge support by the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC), financially supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science (OCW), grant no. 024.002.001.
