A look into our future under climate change? Adaptation and migration intentions following extreme flooding in the Netherlands

Sem J. Duijndam*, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Thijs Endendijk, Hans de Moel, Kymo Slager, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Worldwide, increased flood risk from climate change prompts adaptive behavior of households in situ or through migration. Both can be sensible adaptation responses involving tradeoffs, and understanding their drivers is important for effective climate policy. However, in-situ adaptation and migration are rarely studied in combination and research on how extreme events trigger adaptive behavior in originally low-risk areas is lacking. We analyze survey data from residents affected by the extreme summer floods of 2021 in the Netherlands to contribute to fill this research gap. Our results indicate that current low levels of flood-related migration are likely to increase under higher flood risk. Undertaken in-situ adaptation may act as a barrier for further insitu adaptation or migration behavior. Where in-situ adaptation is mostly related to cognitive factors including risk perceptions, response efficacy and self-efficacy, migration seems to be driven by flood-related emotions. Personal flood experience, mediated by worry, is strongly associated with both types of adaptive behavior. We discuss how policymakers can use these insights to guide and anticipate household adaptation behavior.
Original languageEnglish
Article number103840
Number of pages12
JournalInternational Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Volume95
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sept 2023

Keywords

  • Adaptation
  • Climate change
  • Flooding
  • Household survey
  • Migration
  • Protection motivation theory

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'A look into our future under climate change? Adaptation and migration intentions following extreme flooding in the Netherlands'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this