Abstract
Current global scale land-change models used for integrated assessments and climate modeling are based on classifications of land cover. However, land-use management intensity and livestock keeping are also important aspects of land use, and are an integrated part of land systems. This article aims to classify, map, and to characterize Land Systems (LS) at a global scale and analyze the spatial determinants of these systems. Besides proposing such a classification, the article tests if global assessments can be based on globally uniform allocation rules. Land cover, livestock, and agricultural intensity data are used to map LS using a hierarchical classification method. Logistic regressions are used to analyze variation in spatial determinants of LS. The analysis of the spatial determinants of LS indicates strong associations between LS and a range of socioeconomic and biophysical indicators of human-environment interactions. The set of identified spatial determinants of a LS differs among regions and scales, especially for (mosaic) cropland systems, grassland systems with livestock, and settlements. (Semi-)Natural LS have more similar spatial determinants across regions and scales. Using LS in global models is expected to result in a more accurate representation of land use capturing important aspects of land systems and land architecture: the variation in land cover and the link between land-use intensity and landscape composition. Because the set of most important spatial determinants of LS varies among regions and scales, land-change models that include the human drivers of land change are best parameterized at sub-global level, where similar biophysical, socioeconomic and cultural conditions prevail in the specific regions.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 3125-3148 |
| Number of pages | 24 |
| Journal | Global Change Biology |
| Volume | 18 |
| Issue number | 10 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Oct 2012 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Funding
This article is based on research funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO; project IGLO). The work presented in this article contributes to the Global Land Project (http:\\www.globallandproject.org). The authors thank Elke Stehfest, Kees Klein Goldewijk, and Tom Kram for discussions on the classification system and Erle Ellis for comments on an earlier version of the paper. We also thank the GCB editor Ivan Janssens and two anonymous reviewers for their comments on an earlier version of this article. The global land system data can be downloaded from http://www.ivm.vu.nl/landsystems.
Keywords
- global
- human-environment interactions
- land cover
- land system
- land-change models
- spatial determinants
- EARTH SYSTEM
- COVER CHANGE
- TROPICAL DEFORESTATION
- SPATIALLY EXPLICIT
- USE SCENARIOS
- INTENSIFICATION
- CONSEQUENCES
- AGRICULTURE
- TRANSITIONS
- LIVESTOCK
