A global model for residential energy use: Uncertainty in calibration to regional data

B. van Ruijven, B. de Vries, D.P. van Vuuren, J.P. van der Sluijs

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Uncertainties in energy demand modelling allow for the development of different models, but also leave room for different calibrations of a single model. We apply an automated model calibration procedure to analyse calibration uncertainty of residential sector energy use modelling in the TIMER 2.0 global energy model. This model simulates energy use on the basis of changes in useful energy intensity, technology development (AEEI) and price responses (PIEEI). We find that different implementations of these factors yield behavioural model results. Model calibration uncertainty is identified as influential source for variation in future projections: amounting 30% to 100% around the best estimate. Energy modellers should systematically account for this and communicate calibration uncertainty ranges.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)269-282
Number of pages14
JournalEnergy
Volume35
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2010

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