A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5)

Q. Glaude; B. Noel; M. Olesen; M. Van den Broeke; W. J. van de Berg; R. Mottram; N. Hansen; A. Delhasse; C. Amory; C. Kittel; H. Goelzer; X. Fettweis

doi:10.1029/2024GL111902

A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5)

Q. Glaude^*
, B. Noel
, M. Olesen
, M. Van den Broeke
, W. J. van de Berg
, R. Mottram
, N. Hansen
, A. Delhasse
, C. Amory
, C. Kittel
, H. Goelzer
, X. Fettweis

^*Corresponding author for this work

University of Liege
Danish Meteorological Institute
Université catholique de Louvain
Université Grenoble Alpes
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

The Arctic is warming rapidly, significantly reducing the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) and raising its contribution to global sea-level rise. Since these trends are expected to continue, it is essential to explore the GrIS SMB response to projected climate warming. We compare projections from three polar regional climate models, RACMO, MAR, and HIRHAM, forced by the Community Earth System Model CESM2 under a high-end warming scenario (SSP5-8.5, 1970–2099). We reveal different modeled SMB by 2100, including a twofold larger annual surface mass loss in MAR (−1735 Gt/yr) and HIRHAM (−1698 Gt/yr) relative to RACMO (−964 Gt/yr). Discrepancies primarily stem from differences in projected runoff, triggering melt-albedo positive feedback and subsequent modeled ablation zone expansion. In addition, we find different responses of modeled meltwater production to similar atmospheric warming. Our analysis suggests clear avenues for model developments to further improve SMB projections and contribution to sea-level rise.

Original language	English
Article number	e2024GL111902
Number of pages	10
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	51
Issue number	22
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111902
Publication status	Published - 28 Nov 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024. The Author(s).

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

Greenland
HIRHAM
ice sheet
MAR
RACMO
SMB

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Geophysical Research Letters - 2024 - Glaude - A Factor Two Difference in 21st‐Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface MassFinal published version, 2.55 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

Glaude, Q., Noel, B., Olesen, M., Van den Broeke, M., van de Berg, W. J., Mottram, R., Hansen, N., Delhasse, A., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Goelzer, H., & Fettweis, X. (2024). A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5). Geophysical Research Letters, 51(22), Article e2024GL111902. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111902

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title = "A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5)",

abstract = "The Arctic is warming rapidly, significantly reducing the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) and raising its contribution to global sea-level rise. Since these trends are expected to continue, it is essential to explore the GrIS SMB response to projected climate warming. We compare projections from three polar regional climate models, RACMO, MAR, and HIRHAM, forced by the Community Earth System Model CESM2 under a high-end warming scenario (SSP5-8.5, 1970–2099). We reveal different modeled SMB by 2100, including a twofold larger annual surface mass loss in MAR (−1735 Gt/yr) and HIRHAM (−1698 Gt/yr) relative to RACMO (−964 Gt/yr). Discrepancies primarily stem from differences in projected runoff, triggering melt-albedo positive feedback and subsequent modeled ablation zone expansion. In addition, we find different responses of modeled meltwater production to similar atmospheric warming. Our analysis suggests clear avenues for model developments to further improve SMB projections and contribution to sea-level rise.",

keywords = "Greenland, HIRHAM, ice sheet, MAR, RACMO, SMB",

author = "Q. Glaude and B. Noel and M. Olesen and \{Van den Broeke\}, M. and \{van de Berg\}, \{W. J.\} and R. Mottram and N. Hansen and A. Delhasse and C. Amory and C. Kittel and H. Goelzer and X. Fettweis",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2024. The Author(s).",

year = "2024",

month = nov,

day = "28",

doi = "10.1029/2024GL111902",

language = "English",

volume = "51",

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Glaude, Q, Noel, B, Olesen, M, Van den Broeke, M , van de Berg, WJ, Mottram, R, Hansen, N, Delhasse, A, Amory, C, Kittel, C, Goelzer, H & Fettweis, X 2024, 'A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5)', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 51, no. 22, e2024GL111902. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111902

A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5). / Glaude, Q.; Noel, B.; Olesen, M. et al.
In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 51, No. 22, e2024GL111902, 28.11.2024.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5)

AU - Glaude, Q.

AU - Noel, B.

AU - Olesen, M.

AU - Van den Broeke, M.

AU - van de Berg, W. J.

AU - Mottram, R.

AU - Hansen, N.

AU - Delhasse, A.

AU - Amory, C.

AU - Kittel, C.

AU - Goelzer, H.

AU - Fettweis, X.

PY - 2024/11/28

Y1 - 2024/11/28

N2 - The Arctic is warming rapidly, significantly reducing the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) and raising its contribution to global sea-level rise. Since these trends are expected to continue, it is essential to explore the GrIS SMB response to projected climate warming. We compare projections from three polar regional climate models, RACMO, MAR, and HIRHAM, forced by the Community Earth System Model CESM2 under a high-end warming scenario (SSP5-8.5, 1970–2099). We reveal different modeled SMB by 2100, including a twofold larger annual surface mass loss in MAR (−1735 Gt/yr) and HIRHAM (−1698 Gt/yr) relative to RACMO (−964 Gt/yr). Discrepancies primarily stem from differences in projected runoff, triggering melt-albedo positive feedback and subsequent modeled ablation zone expansion. In addition, we find different responses of modeled meltwater production to similar atmospheric warming. Our analysis suggests clear avenues for model developments to further improve SMB projections and contribution to sea-level rise.

AB - The Arctic is warming rapidly, significantly reducing the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) and raising its contribution to global sea-level rise. Since these trends are expected to continue, it is essential to explore the GrIS SMB response to projected climate warming. We compare projections from three polar regional climate models, RACMO, MAR, and HIRHAM, forced by the Community Earth System Model CESM2 under a high-end warming scenario (SSP5-8.5, 1970–2099). We reveal different modeled SMB by 2100, including a twofold larger annual surface mass loss in MAR (−1735 Gt/yr) and HIRHAM (−1698 Gt/yr) relative to RACMO (−964 Gt/yr). Discrepancies primarily stem from differences in projected runoff, triggering melt-albedo positive feedback and subsequent modeled ablation zone expansion. In addition, we find different responses of modeled meltwater production to similar atmospheric warming. Our analysis suggests clear avenues for model developments to further improve SMB projections and contribution to sea-level rise.

KW - Greenland

KW - HIRHAM

KW - ice sheet

KW - MAR

KW - RACMO

KW - SMB

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85210036003

U2 - 10.1029/2024GL111902

DO - 10.1029/2024GL111902

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85210036003

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 51

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 22

M1 - e2024GL111902

ER -

A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5)

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Keywords

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