A 21 st Century Warming Threshold for Sustained Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss

B. Noël; L. van Kampenhout; J. T. M. Lenaerts; W. J. van de Berg; M. R. van den Broeke

doi:10.1029/2020GL090471

A 21 st Century Warming Threshold for Sustained Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss

B. Noël, L. van Kampenhout, J. T. M. Lenaerts, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke

Research output: Contribution to journal › Letter › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Under anticipated future warming, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) will pass a threshold when meltwater runoff exceeds the accumulation of snow, resulting in a negative surface mass balance (SMB < 0) and sustained mass loss. Here, we dynamically and statistically downscale the outputs of an Earth system model to 1 km resolution to infer that a Greenland near-surface atmospheric warming of 4.5 ± 0.3°C—relative to preindustrial—is required for GrIS SMB to become persistently negative. Climate models from CMIP5 and CMIP6 translate this regional temperature change to a global warming threshold of 2.7 ± 0.2°C. Under a high-end warming scenario, this threshold may be reached around 2055, while for a strong mitigation scenario it will likely not be passed. Depending on the emissions scenario taken, our method estimates 6–13 cm sea level rise from GrIS SMB by the year 2100.

Original language	English
Article number	e2020GL090471
Pages (from-to)	1-9
Number of pages	9
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	48
Issue number	5
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090471
Publication status	Published - 16 Mar 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
B. No?l was funded by the NWO VENI grant VI.Veni.192.019. L. van Kampenhout, W. J. van de Berg, and M. R. van den Broeke acknowledge funding from the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC). This publication was supported by PROTECT. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 869304, PROTECT contribution number 11. J. T. M. Lenaerts acknowledges funding from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Grant 80NSSC17K0565 (NASA Sea Level Team 2017?2020).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021. The Authors.

Keywords

CESM2
Greenland
future
regional climate model
surface mass balance

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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2020GL090471Final published version, 1.29 MBLicence: CC BY

https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/c55aaea5-6cdb-3531-a44f-881ef9ba5460/

Cite this

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abstract = "Under anticipated future warming, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) will pass a threshold when meltwater runoff exceeds the accumulation of snow, resulting in a negative surface mass balance (SMB < 0) and sustained mass loss. Here, we dynamically and statistically downscale the outputs of an Earth system model to 1 km resolution to infer that a Greenland near-surface atmospheric warming of 4.5 ± 0.3°C—relative to preindustrial—is required for GrIS SMB to become persistently negative. Climate models from CMIP5 and CMIP6 translate this regional temperature change to a global warming threshold of 2.7 ± 0.2°C. Under a high-end warming scenario, this threshold may be reached around 2055, while for a strong mitigation scenario it will likely not be passed. Depending on the emissions scenario taken, our method estimates 6–13 cm sea level rise from GrIS SMB by the year 2100.",

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note = "Funding Information: B. No?l was funded by the NWO VENI grant VI.Veni.192.019. L. van Kampenhout, W. J. van de Berg, and M. R. van den Broeke acknowledge funding from the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC). This publication was supported by PROTECT. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 869304, PROTECT contribution number 11. J. T. M. Lenaerts acknowledges funding from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Grant 80NSSC17K0565 (NASA Sea Level Team 2017?2020). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021. The Authors.",

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AB - Under anticipated future warming, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) will pass a threshold when meltwater runoff exceeds the accumulation of snow, resulting in a negative surface mass balance (SMB < 0) and sustained mass loss. Here, we dynamically and statistically downscale the outputs of an Earth system model to 1 km resolution to infer that a Greenland near-surface atmospheric warming of 4.5 ± 0.3°C—relative to preindustrial—is required for GrIS SMB to become persistently negative. Climate models from CMIP5 and CMIP6 translate this regional temperature change to a global warming threshold of 2.7 ± 0.2°C. Under a high-end warming scenario, this threshold may be reached around 2055, while for a strong mitigation scenario it will likely not be passed. Depending on the emissions scenario taken, our method estimates 6–13 cm sea level rise from GrIS SMB by the year 2100.

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A 21 st Century Warming Threshold for Sustained Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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