Abstract
Differentiating the impacts of climate change between 1.5°C and 2°C requires a regional and sector-specific perspective. Whereas for some regions and sectors the difference in climate variables might be indistinguishable from natural variability, other areas especially in the tropics and subtropics will experience significant shifts. In addition to region-specific changes in climatic conditions, vulnerability and exposure also differ substantially across the world. Even small differences in climate hazards can translate into sizeable impact differences for particularly vulnerable regions or sectors. Here, we review scientific evidence of regional differences in climate hazards at 1.5°C and 2°C and provide an assessment of selected hotspots of climate change, including small islands as well as rural, urban, and coastal areas in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, that are particularly affected by the additional 0.5°C global mean temperature increase. We interlink these with a review of the vulnerability and exposure literature related to these hotspots to provide an integrated perspective on the differences in climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 135-163 |
| Number of pages | 29 |
| Journal | Annual Review of Environment and Resources |
| Volume | 43 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Oct 2018 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:The authors thank the HAPPI initiative and all participating modeling groups that have provided data. This research used science gateway resources of the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, a DOE Office of Science User Facility supported by the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC02-05CH11231. We acknowledge the WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and has led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. C.F.S., F.S., P. Pfleiderer, and O.S. acknowledge support by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (01LS1613A, 01LN1711A, 01LN1711B). D.D., T.L., W.H., L.D., P. Pringle, A.T., M.S., and M.R. were supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (11_II_093_Global_A_SIDS and LDCs; M.L. and S.D. by 15_II_135_Afrika_G_Unterstützung nationaler Anpassungspläne).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.
Funding
The authors thank the HAPPI initiative and all participating modeling groups that have provided data. This research used science gateway resources of the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, a DOE Office of Science User Facility supported by the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC02-05CH11231. We acknowledge the WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and has led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. C.F.S., F.S., P. Pfleiderer, and O.S. acknowledge support by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (01LS1613A, 01LN1711A, 01LN1711B). D.D., T.L., W.H., L.D., P. Pringle, A.T., M.S., and M.R. were supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (11_II_093_Global_A_SIDS and LDCs; M.L. and S.D. by 15_II_135_Afrika_G_Unterstützung nationaler Anpassungspläne).
Keywords
- 1.5°C
- extreme weather events
- hotspots
- sea level rise
- small islands
- vulnerability
